The main enemy of bitcoin is not a market crash, but prolonged boredom: an expert analysis
The main threat to Bitcoin lies not in the usual market crashes. What is far more dangerous for the asset is years of boredom and stagnation. It is a prolonged sideways trend, not a sharp decline, that can undermine investor confidence and destroy the fundamental narrative on which demand is built.
The market can survive a sharp drop if confidence in future growth remains. However, a long consolidation of the price in a narrow range gradually kills the very story that attracts buyers. As the narrative weakens, the equity premium of key players, such as Michael Saylor's Strategy, also contracts. His capital-raising machine becomes less efficient, and consequently, the market's ability to generate new momentum decreases.
After ten years working in the industry, I have come to the conclusion: the essence of Bitcoin hardly changes. Only the story around it transforms. These stories explain why the price should rise. But today, most of the old narratives seem completely exhausted.
Why are the old stories no longer working?
- Bitcoin was often called "digital gold," but during crises, it traded like a tech stock.
- It was considered "freedom money," yet many industry veterans are now choosing other coins.
- The development of artificial intelligence intensifies fears about quantum computing, which could undermine the very foundation of network security.
Despite this, I still believe in Bitcoin's long-term growth. My past predictions have fully come true: in 2018, I expected the launch of spot ETFs, as well as the arrival of a US president supportive of cryptocurrency. Both scenarios were successfully realized. However, the feeling of an inevitable powerful catalyst is now noticeably weaker.
It is sad to watch the original ideas erode. The concepts of "freedom money" and "energy value" are gradually disappearing. Saylor promotes ideas of Bitcoin banking and digital lending, but such concepts are too complex for ordinary people. I genuinely miss the times when the main Bitcoin message was freedom.
My professional opinion: The market now critically needs a new, simple, and inspiring narrative. Without it, Bitcoin risks getting stuck for a long time in a phase of "bearish boredom," which could cause more harm than any crash.