The US is preparing a total ban on political betting for members of Congress: a law against insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket
The U.S. Congress is close to imposing a strict ban on lawmakers and their families participating in prediction market trading. House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil, a Republican from Wisconsin, has officially introduced a bill called the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act. This document is a direct blow to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where bets on political event outcomes are gaining momentum.
The essence of the initiative is simple and radical: congressmen, their spouses, and minor children are prohibited from wagering money on politics and government decisions. The key motive is combating insider trading. As rightly noted, lawmakers have access to confidential information unavailable to ordinary players, which puts them in a privileged position and undermines market integrity.
What exactly the new law prohibits
Steil's document builds on an earlier initiative—the Stop Insider Trading Act, approved by the committee on January 14. According to the bill's text, bets on specific government decisions, actions of authorities, and outcomes of political events are banned. Violations carry a fine: $2,000 or 10% of the bet amount—whichever is greater. Illegally obtained profits are subject to confiscation.
"Americans should be confident that their congressman is not profiting from insider information. Lawmakers should write laws, not bet on their outcomes," Steil stated.
An important nuance: the fine cannot be paid from official expenses, Senate funds, or political donations. If a congressman resigns without settling the debt, the case will be referred to the Department of Justice for a civil lawsuit. Bets on non-political events, such as sports, are not affected by the law.
Platforms prepare for stricter rules
This is only part of a broader push for tighter control. In March, Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff introduced their own bill—the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act—aimed at combating trading of confidential information on any platform. In the House of Representatives, the PREDICT Act with similar measures is moving forward in parallel.
Market operators themselves are not waiting for the law to pass. As early as June, Kalshi launched a risk assessment system, employment verification, and whistleblower channels to prevent insiders from accessing the platform. Polymarket, in turn, integrated the Chainalysis service and is building an on-chain monitoring system.
Expert opinion: The initiative has been long overdue and is entirely logical. Prediction markets lose trust if players with privileged access to data operate on them. However, a total ban for congressmen is a half-measure. The real problem lies in the opacity of information flows themselves, and this requires more systemic solutions, not just prohibitive measures.