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The main danger for bitcoin lies not in a sharp market crash, but in a long and tedious stagnation. It is the prolonged sideways movement, in my deep conviction, that can undermine investor faith in the asset's further growth far more effectively than any bearish trend.

The market can survive a sharp drawdown — it is a natural part of the cycle. The key condition for recovery is maintaining belief in the next wave of growth. However, prolonged stagnation has a destructive effect: it gradually destroys the very narrative that sustains buying demand. Particularly vulnerable during such periods is the structure of STRC (Strategy perpetual preferred shares), through which Michael Saylor finances bitcoin purchases. When the price moves in a narrow range for years, the company's stock premium shrinks, making the capital-raising mechanism less sustainable. Saylor's task today is not just to buy coins, but to provide the market with a fundamentally new reason to believe in the asset.

Narratives lose their power

Over ten years working in the industry, I have come to an important conclusion: the essence of bitcoin hardly changes. Only the story around it transforms. It is these stories that explain why the price should rise. But most of the old stories today look completely exhausted.

• Bitcoin was called digital gold, but during crises it traded like a tech stock.
• It was considered freedom money, yet many crypto industry veterans now choose other coins.
• The development of artificial intelligence constantly heightens fears about quantum computing.

At the same time, I maintain a long-term bullish view. My previous forecasts have fully materialized: in 2018, I anticipated the launch of spot ETFs and also expected the emergence of a US president supporting cryptocurrency. Both scenarios have successfully come to pass. However, the feeling of an inevitable powerful catalyst is now noticeably weaker.

In search of new meaning

I am genuinely saddened to see the erosion of the original ideas. The concepts of freedom money and energy value are gradually disappearing. Saylor promotes ideas of bitcoin banking and digital lending — complex constructs that are inaccessible to ordinary people. I sincerely miss the times when the main bitcoin message was freedom.

My conclusion as an analyst: until the market receives a new, simple, and inspiring narrative capable of replacing outdated stories, bitcoin risks getting stuck in a sideways trend for a long time. This is not a crash, but it is precisely this that currently poses the greatest threat to its long-term growth.