Goldman Sachs has cut its gold forecast to $4,900: the blame lies with the Fed's hawkish stance.
The precious metals market has received a significant signal for a correction. Leading analysts have revised their annual gold forecast, lowering it by $500 to $4,900 per troy ounce. The main catalyst for this decision is a sharp weakening of expectations for a loosening of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy in 2026.
The key indicator pointing to cooling interest in gold was capital outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by this asset. According to the latest data, in May, investors withdrew about $2 billion from such funds worldwide. Only European ETFs managed to show positive dynamics, while Asian funds, on the contrary, lost $1.2 billion. This is the first net outflow from Asia since August 2025, clearly demonstrating a shift in sentiment on a global level.
The reason for such a sharp change in priorities is the strengthening of "hawkish" sentiment within the Fed. This week, the regulator kept the key interest rate in the range of 3.50–3.75%, but the number of supporters of further policy tightening is growing. Nine Fed officials now allow for at least one rate hike before the end of the year. Economists at a leading investment bank have also adjusted their expectations, shifting the possible timing of rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027.
If the Fed does decide to raise rates as early as September, as some experts suggest, gold could face additional pressure. Analysts do not rule out a price drop to $4,400 by the end of the year, making the metal less attractive as a safe-haven asset against political and economic risks.
My view: The forecast reduction is not a panic flight, but a pragmatic reaction to the changed macroeconomic landscape. Institutional investors are revising their strategies, but the long-term bullish scenario for gold remains in force thanks to continued purchases by central banks. In April, they bought 19 tons more than they sold, and about 45% of regulators plan to increase reserves over the next 12 months. This creates a strong fundamental "floor" for the price, even against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric.