Bitcoin is threatened not by a crash, but by prolonged boredom: CryptoQuant analyst on the main risk
The Bitcoin market faces a paradoxical threat. The main risk for the first cryptocurrency is not a sharp price drop, but a prolonged period of stagnation and sideways movement. This is the conclusion I drew from a recent analysis that deserves the closest attention.
Why Stagnation Is More Dangerous Than a Crash
The logic here is simple but profound. The market can survive a sharp decline if faith in a subsequent upward surge remains. However, multi-year movement within a narrow range destroys the very narrative on which demand is built. It slowly but surely kills investors' belief in the asset's further growth.
In such a situation, the structure built around the perpetual preferred stock (STRC) of Strategy company becomes particularly vulnerable. Michael Saylor finances Bitcoin purchases precisely through this instrument. The problem arises not when the price simply falls, but during a multi-year sideways trend. Under such conditions, the company's stock premium shrinks, making the capital-raising mechanism less sustainable. Saylor's real task is not just to buy coins, but to give the market a fundamentally new reason to believe in the asset.
Old Stories No Longer Work
After ten years working in the industry, I have come to an important conclusion: the essence of Bitcoin hardly changes. Only the story around it transforms. These narratives explain why the price should rise. But most of the old stories today appear completely exhausted.
- Bitcoin was called digital gold, but during crises it traded like a tech stock.
- It was considered money of freedom, yet many crypto industry veterans now choose other coins.
- The development of AI intensifies fears about quantum computing.
At the same time, I continue to believe in long-term price growth and expect an influx of institutional capital. My past forecasts have fully materialized: in 2018, I anticipated the launch of spot ETFs and also expected the emergence of a US president supporting cryptocurrency. Both scenarios have successfully come true. However, the feeling of an inevitable powerful catalyst is now noticeably weaker.
In Search of New Meaning
It saddens me to observe the erosion of the original ideas. The concepts of freedom money and energy value are gradually disappearing. Saylor promotes ideas of Bitcoin banking and digital lending, but such concepts are too complex for ordinary people. I genuinely miss the times when the main Bitcoin message was freedom.
Expert commentary: The market is currently in a phase where old narratives have lost their power, while new ones have not yet formed. This creates a unique situation of uncertainty that could last longer than many participants expect. The key challenge for Bitcoin is to find a new, compelling story capable of attracting fresh capital and restoring investor confidence.