Anomalous surge of interest in Ethereum in Russia: analysis of causes and risks
In recent weeks, a sharp increase in search queries for Ethereum has been recorded in the Russian segment of the internet. Data from the Moscow Exchange confirms this trend: open interest in the June futures contract on the ETH index has more than quadrupled—from 86,000 to 368,000 contracts. However, there is no consensus among market participants about what exactly is behind this surge and how real it is.
Speculative bounce or fundamental shift?
Some analysts, including trader and blogger Anatoly Shpakov, attribute the rise in interest to a "search for the next idea" after Bitcoin. Ethereum indeed looks attractive against the backdrop of a recent drawdown: since the start of the year, the asset has fallen more sharply than BTC, dropping to around $1,500. For many, this has become a signal to buy a major infrastructure asset at a discount. Several narratives are cited as drivers: operational spot ETFs, potential staking income, and the network's role as a base layer for DeFi, stablecoins, and applications.
Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," also highlights the inflow of institutional money through ETFs and staking yields as key factors. However, he warns that for Russian investors, buying ETFs involves high risks due to jurisdictional restrictions and blockages.
Skeptics: "No real growth in demand"
Not everyone shares the optimism. Blogger Konstantin "CryptoGrandpa" Koshelev claims he does not observe a surge in interest in Ethereum. According to him, many were put off by the asset's weakness and uncertainty surrounding the actions of the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin. He sees ETFs not as a "multiplier" but merely as a potential driver that has not yet received approval at the state level in the U.S. The only positive point, in his opinion, is the possible mention of ETH in a new Russian cryptocurrency bill.
Risks: volatility and uncertainty
In assessing the risks, experts are almost unanimous. The main one is high volatility. Anatoly Shpakov warns: search interest should not be confused with a real entry point—mass demand often arrives only after a strong move. Additionally, the Ethereum network faces competition from Solana, Tron, and other blockchains.
Fyodor Ivanov from operator "SHARD" adds that Ethereum still has to prove the demand for its infrastructure in a world where interest is shifting toward AI. And Konstantin Koshelev points to a new threat—hacks of DeFi protocols using artificial intelligence.
My view
The rise in interest in Ethereum in Russia is more of a deferred demand for the "second place" after a correction, rather than a sustainable trend. While fundamental drivers (ETFs, staking) remain more expectations than reality, the market moves on emotions and speculation. Investors should remember: a "dead cat bounce" can be deceptive, and ETH's volatility can destroy the positions of those who enter without a clear horizon. It is worth buying in parts and only with funds that are ready for long-term "cold storage."