Surge of Interest in Ethereum in Russia: Analysis of Causes and Prospects
Ethereum queries in the Russian segment of search engines are showing significant growth. My fellow analysts are divided in their opinions on the nature of this phenomenon: some see it as an influx of institutional capital and a return of interest following Bitcoin, while others question the reality of the demand surge itself.
I analyzed the opinions of six key market experts to identify the true drivers, key narratives around ETH, and the risks for those considering buying Ether for the first time.
Open Interest in ETH Futures: Fourfold Increase in Two Weeks
Evgeny Popov, editor-in-chief of Invest Future, relies on data from the Moscow Exchange: open interest in the June futures contract on the Ethereum index has more than quadrupled from mid-May to early June — from 86,000 to 368,000 contracts. At the same time, trading volumes and the number of transactions have sharply increased. However, Popov emphasizes that statistics alone cannot determine the direction of investors' bets. The behavior of derivatives market participants more closely resembles an attempt to play a correction: since the start of the year, Ethereum has fallen more sharply than Bitcoin, and in early June it dropped to around $1,500. For many, this looked like a chance to buy a major infrastructure asset at a discount.
Multiple Growth Drivers
Anatoly Shpakov, trader and blogger, supports the theory of a return of interest following Bitcoin. The increase in queries is a signal that investors are looking for the "next idea." In his view, ETH has several narratives: operational ETFs, potential staking income, and the network's role as infrastructure for DeFi, stablecoins, and applications. Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy at IC "Finam," names the same set: a bet on the influx of institutional money through ETFs, staking income, and the network's role in tokenization and decentralized applications.
Roman Nosov, director of high-net-worth client relations at "BCS World of Investments," divides investors into three groups: those seeking an alternative to instruments in Russia ("shelter" seekers), those experimenting with high risk, and those adding an asset for portfolio diversification. ETF purchases are available to the first group — in foreign jurisdictions or in the "gray zone" in Russia, but with a high risk of losing connection with the jurisdiction and being blocked for a Russian resident.
Expectation of a Rebound
Fyodor Ivanov, director of AML/KYT analytics at operator "SHARD," largely shares Evgeny Popov's view: interest has grown due to expectations of ecosystem growth and because Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, held around the $2,000-2,500 mark for several years. The current price is lower, creating an expectation of recovery. Fyodor Ivanov and Evgeny Popov agree that the main role is played by the calculation to recover from the drawdown.
Is There Really Growth?
Konstantin "CryptoGrandpa" Koshelev, blogger, is not sure about the reality of the demand surge. He notes that he does not observe an increase in interest in Ethereum. According to him, many were scared off by the asset's weakness and the uncertainty of the Ethereum Foundation, as well as Vitalik, who is "hitting the order book." Koshelev sees the same factors — ETFs and staking — differently. For him, ETFs are an unreliable "multiplier," and staking is only a potential driver: in the US, there is still no answer on whether it will be allowed at the state and bank level. On the positive side, our interlocutor notes the possible mention of ETH in the new cryptocurrency bill.
Volatility — The Main Risk
Experts agree on the assessment of risks. Anatoly Shpakov warns: you cannot confuse interest on Google with an entry point; mass demand often comes after a strong move. ETFs do not guarantee growth, staking does not protect against a decline, and the network competes with Solana, Tron, and others. He advises buying in parts and with an understanding of the horizon. Yaroslav Kabakov and Fyodor Ivanov agree with Anatoly Shpakov on the main risk — high volatility. Evgeny Popov shifts the focus from price to development: Bitcoin has already received the status of "digital gold," while Ethereum still has to prove the demand for its infrastructure in a world where interest is centered around AI. Developer disputes over the network's strategy also add uncertainty. Konstantin Koshelev highlights a separate risk — the hacking of DeFi protocols using new AI.
My professional opinion: The growth of interest in Ethereum in Russia is a classic example of "bottom fishing" after a strong correction. For now, the fundamental drivers (ETFs, staking) remain more expectations than reality. Investors should remember that in the current macroeconomic uncertainty, Ethereum, as a riskier asset, can demonstrate increased volatility both upward and downward.