Russian banks are preparing a crypto revolution: when digital assets will appear in mobile apps
Russian retail is on the verge of a tectonic shift. The ability to buy cryptocurrency and digital financial assets (DFAs) directly through banking apps, bypassing third-party exchangers, is no longer a question of "if," but "when." However, as analysis of the expert field shows, the consensus ends with the acknowledgment of this fact—from there, fundamental disagreements on details begin.
What will the retail investor get?
The most conservative scenario is voiced by Yaroslav Kabakov from the investment company "Finam." According to his assessment, banking apps will primarily become conduits for DFAs. Direct cryptocurrency trading, in his opinion, will remain in question due to strict compliance and regulatory requirements.
Roman Nosov from "BCS World of Investments" calls for waiting for the final version of the cryptocurrency bill. Let me remind you that the Bank of Russia initiated this norm, expecting the document to be adopted in the second reading before the end of July. This is a key deadline that sets the pace for the entire market.
Fyodor Ivanov from the operator "SHARD" is more optimistic. He is convinced that retail investors are guaranteed to gain long-awaited access to digital assets, based on the current version of the document from the State Duma website.
Two types of users: who needs banks and who doesn't
The most detailed market segmentation is offered by Alexander Nam from MTS Fintech. He divides retail clients into two fundamentally different categories.
Beginners—their main needs are simplicity, security, and trust. For them, a banking app will become an ideal gateway to the world of digital currencies. They won't have to deal with seed phrases and crypto wallets. Banks here have a colossal advantage due to their broad audience, recognizable brand, and familiar interface.
Experienced traders—this group votes with their wallets. For them, favorable exchange rates, high liquidity, and minimal fees are important. They prefer to work directly with exchanges and DeFi protocols. In this niche, banks are unlikely to compete with global platforms.
Who will be closer to the start?
Experts agree that all players are in equal starting conditions. However, large banks with developed brokerage infrastructure will be able to scale significantly faster. Their main obstacle is a lack of deep expertise in blockchain technologies.
Almost all of the country's largest financial institutions have already announced plans to implement crypto services. As soon as transparent rules of the game appear, regional banks will also join the trend. For them, this is an excellent opportunity to offer a new product and generate additional income. Currently, the sector's development is solely constrained by regulatory risks.
The gray market of exchangers: fate is sealed
Here, experts are unanimous. Banks will significantly reduce the share of the shadow sector but will not eliminate it completely. Illegal exchangers will weaken in the mass segment when convenient and profitable banking products emerge. However, the professional audience will continue to choose anonymity and access to global liquidity pools.
It is important to remember the legal consequences of the reform. After the law comes into force, the activities of unlicensed points will become criminally and administratively punishable. The document provides for the issuance of special licenses, which will allow large exchangers to legalize, although they will have to compete with banks.
Analyst's conclusions
The market is on the verge of radical changes. Banks will easily replace exchangers for beginners but will lose the battle for professionals. Regulatory risks and a shortage of personnel are the main barriers to overcome. My forecast: the first wave of crypto service implementation in banking apps will begin in 2024, but full-fledged competition with global exchanges will unfold no earlier than 2025-2026.