Banks vs Exchangers: When will cryptocurrency appear in mobile apps in Russia
The Russian retail investor is on the verge of a historic shift: buying cryptocurrencies and digital financial assets (DFAs) could become as routine as a transfer via the Faster Payments System (SBP). This refers to direct access to these instruments through banking app interfaces, bypassing classic exchangers. However, as is often the case in a regulated environment, the devil is in the details.
Two camps: DFAs or cryptocurrency?
The most conservative scenario is voiced by Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC Finam. He believes integration is inevitable, but it will primarily concern DFAs. Direct purchase of Bitcoin or Ether, in his opinion, will remain questionable due to strict compliance requirements and regulatory uncertainty. This view is shared by Fedor Ivanov from SHARD, who advises waiting for the final version of the cryptocurrency bill initiated by the Bank of Russia. Key developments are expected before the end of July, during the second reading of the document.
User segmentation: who needs banks and who doesn't
Alexander Nam from MTS Fintech offers a more detailed and, in my opinion, the most realistic forecast, dividing retail clients into two fundamentally different categories.
The first category is beginners. For them, simplicity, security, and trust in a familiar brand are critical. The banking interface, with its familiar UX and built-in protection, will become an ideal gateway to the world of digital assets. They won't have to deal with seed phrases and crypto wallets. Banks have a huge advantage here due to their audience.
The second category is experienced traders. They will vote with their wallets and choose exchanges and DeFi protocols. For them, key factors are anonymity, deep liquidity, and minimal fees. Banks, with their compliance procedures and often higher spreads, are unlikely to compete for this audience.
Gray market: an exodus is inevitable, but not complete
On the future of illegal exchangers, experts are unanimous: their share in the mass segment will significantly decrease. By offering a convenient and legal service, banks will attract the flow of "beginner" money. However, as Alexander Nam rightly notes, the professional audience will continue to use anonymous services to access global liquidity pools. Fedor Ivanov adds that after the law comes into effect, the activities of unlicensed exchangers will become criminally and administratively punishable, forcing major players to legalize, but not completely eliminating the shadow sector.
My analysis: The market is entering a phase of maturity. Banks will not bury crypto exchangers, but they will take away their "fattest" and fastest-growing segment—the mass retail investor. The key success factor will be speed: whichever bank first offers a truly convenient and competitively priced product will capture the lion's share of the new market. The main obstacle remains not technology, but regulatory uncertainty, which, judging by all indications, will begin to dissipate in the coming weeks.