Crypto or stocks: where are Russian investors' money actually going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, Russia began tightening regulation of digital currencies. The stock market, on the other hand, continues to operate under clear rules and steadily pay dividends. In these conditions, the retail investor faces a difficult choice: where to allocate capital?
Is there a flow?
Expert opinions on this issue are divided. Some analysts record a movement of funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks. The main reason is the desire to lock in profits after the BTC peak or simply fatigue from excessive volatility. Against this backdrop, activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, and the stock market, offering transparent dividends and a more understandable structure, has begun to seem like an attractive alternative. However, estimates suggest this flow remains insignificant and affects only a small portion of investors.
Other experts hold the opposite view. They argue that there is no mass movement of capital from crypto to stocks. These instruments, in their opinion, serve fundamentally different investment strategies and audiences. Moreover, there is data indicating an outflow of funds from Russian stocks into bank deposits and current consumption. The key argument here is the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market, which is only 3.7 against a historical average of 6.2. Such a low valuation of companies completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks.
Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, analysts are more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry significantly higher risks, but also have a higher potential for super-profits. At certain points, after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be high. However, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of digital assets, including infrastructure risks (hacks, wallet issues), is assessed as undoubtedly higher. "Blue chips" of the stock market offer a more predictable result with significantly lower volatility.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Most surveyed experts agree that the audiences of these instruments differ greatly. They overlap only in a narrow segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. Cryptocurrencies, despite all the risks, remain attractive to a young and risk-prone audience that values speed, simplicity, and anonymity. For this group, traditional brokers with their bureaucracy and tax reporting are an alien environment.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the capitalization of the entire crypto market (about $2.4 trillion) is incomparable to the capitalization of the stock market. These are two different financial worlds. In the current conditions, when there is no mass hype in the Russian stock market and a crypto winter is raging in the crypto sphere, these instruments practically do not compete for the same retail investor. The best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them, and now might be just such a moment.
Conclusions
The hypothesis of a mass flow of funds from Russian retail investors from crypto to stocks does not find unequivocal confirmation. There is a flow, but it is local and insignificant. Cryptocurrencies remain a riskier but potentially more profitable asset, attracting its specific audience. The stock market, in turn, is going through hard times, as evidenced by low multipliers and capital outflow into deposits.
Analyst's opinion: In my view, the current situation is a classic example of cycle divergence. The crypto market is experiencing a phase of stagnation and accumulation, while the Russian stock market is under pressure from external and internal factors. There is no direct competition for retail investor capital here. Each instrument lives its own life, and the choice between them should be based on a long-term horizon and personal risk tolerance, not on momentary trends.