Surge of Interest in Ethereum in Russia: Analysis by Cryptalist Experts
Ethereum queries in the Russian segment of the internet are showing steady growth. This has attracted the attention of the professional community, and experts are divided in their opinions on the reasons for such a surge. Some attribute it to an influx of institutional capital and a return of interest after Bitcoin, while others question the reality of this spike.
Open Interest in ETH Futures: Fourfold Increase in Two Weeks
According to data from the Moscow Exchange, open interest in the June Ethereum index futures contract grew more than fourfold from mid-May to early June — from 86,000 to 368,000 contracts. Trading volumes and the number of transactions also increased sharply. However, as one analyst notes, it is impossible to determine from statistics alone what exactly investors are betting on. The behavior of derivatives market participants is more reminiscent of an attempt to play a correction: since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has fallen more than Bitcoin, and in early June it dropped to around $1,500. For many, this looks like a chance to buy a major infrastructure asset at a discount.
Several Growth Drivers
Some experts point to a return of interest after Bitcoin. The increase in queries is a signal that investors are looking for the "next idea." In their view, ETH has several narratives: working ETFs, potential staking income, and the network's role as infrastructure for DeFi, stablecoins, and applications.
Other analysts highlight a similar set of factors: bets on an influx of institutional money through ETFs, staking income, and the network's role in tokenization and decentralized applications. At the same time, investors are divided into those seeking an alternative to instruments in Russia ("safe haven" seekers), those experimenting with high risk, and those adding the asset to a diversified portfolio. Purchasing ETFs is accessible to the first group — in foreign jurisdictions or in the "gray zone" in Russia, but with a high risk of losing contact with the jurisdiction and being blocked for Russian residents.
Expectation of a Rebound
Many experts agree that interest has grown due to expectations of ecosystem growth and because Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, has held around the $2,000-2,500 mark for several years. The current price is lower, creating expectations of a recovery. In their opinion, the main role is played by the calculation to recoup the drawdown.
Is There Actually Growth?
However, not everyone is confident in a real surge in demand. Some experts note that they do not observe increased interest in Ethereum. The asset's weakness and the uncertainty of the Ethereum Foundation, as well as Vitalik Buterin, who is "hitting the order book," have scared many away. The same factors — ETFs and staking — are viewed differently: ETFs are seen as an unreliable "multiplier," and staking is merely a potential driver, as the US has not yet answered whether to allow it at the state and bank level. On the positive side, a possible mention of ETH in a new cryptocurrency bill is noted.
Volatility — The Main Risk
In assessing risks, experts are unanimous. One should not confuse interest on Google with an entry point: mass demand often comes after a strong move. ETFs do not guarantee growth, staking does not protect against a decline, and the network competes with Solana, Tron, and others. It is recommended to buy in portions and with an understanding of the time horizon.
Almost everyone considers high volatility to be the main risk. Additionally, difficulties with purchasing ETFs from Russia, unclear prospects for network development, and the threat of hacking DeFi protocols using AI are highlighted.
Conclusions
Experts disagree on whether the surge in demand itself is real. Some believe that interest has indeed grown — both exchange data and investors' calculations to recoup the drawdown indicate this. Others see no growth. However, there is almost no disagreement on the reasons for potential growth: most cite the same set — ETFs, staking income, and Ethereum's role as infrastructure for applications. Opinions on risks are also similar: almost everyone considers high volatility to be the main one.
Cryptalist's Opinion: The growth of interest in Ethereum in Russia is more a reflection of the global trend of searching for a "second idea" after Bitcoin. However, I would advise caution regarding such spikes in queries. They often signal FOMO rather than a fundamental shift. Ethereum is a powerful infrastructure asset, but its prospects directly depend on the network's ability to compete with faster and cheaper solutions.