Banks vs. exchange offices: when will cryptocurrency appear in Russian apps and who will win
Russian retail is on the verge of a tectonic shift. The ability to buy cryptocurrency and digital financial assets (DFAs) directly through familiar banking apps, bypassing shady exchangers, is no longer a futuristic fantasy but a question of the near future. However, the debate among experts revolves around something else: in what exact format this will happen, when it will launch, and whether banks can completely squeeze out the gray market.
What the retail investor will get
The most conservative scenario was outlined by Yaroslav Kabakov from IC "Finam." In his opinion, access through banking apps will inevitably appear, but primarily in the form of DFAs. Direct purchase of classic cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains in question due to strict regulatory frameworks and compliance requirements. Don't expect a "Buy BTC" button to appear in Sberbank Online tomorrow. Rather, we are talking about tokenized assets strictly tied to Russian jurisdiction.
The key catalyst for the process will be the adoption of the cryptocurrency bill, which is being lobbied by the Bank of Russia. It is expected that the second reading of the document will take place before the end of July. This moment will become the starting point for the entire industry.
Two types of users: who needs banks and who doesn't
Alexander Nam from MTS Fintech offers the most detailed segmentation, dividing retail clients into newcomers and pros. For the first group, the decisive factors are simplicity, trust in a familiar brand, and security. They don't need to understand seed phrases and private keys. The bank, with its familiar interface and huge audience, is an ideal gateway into the world of digital currencies. Here, banks have a colossal advantage.
A completely different picture emerges with experienced traders. For them, anonymity, minimal fees, deep liquidity, and access to global pools on international exchanges and DeFi protocols are important. In this niche, banks burdened by regulation and KYC are unlikely to be able to compete. They simply won't be able to offer the same conditions as unregulated platforms.
The gray market: collapse or transformation?
There is no consensus on the future of illegal exchangers, but everyone agrees on one thing: complete disappearance will not happen. Yaroslav Kabakov and Alexander Nam believe that the shadow sector's position will significantly weaken in the mass segment if banks offer convenient and profitable products. However, the professional audience will continue to choose anonymity and access to global liquidity.
Fyodor Ivanov from operator "SHARD" adds an important legal nuance: after the law comes into effect, the activities of illegal exchangers will become criminally and administratively punishable. This will encourage major players to legalize by obtaining special licenses, but they will still be forced to compete with banks.
Cryptalist Analytics
The Russian market is moving towards a classic two-tier model: banks will become a "supermarket" for the mass investor, offering simple and legal DFAs, while professional traders and large capital will remain in "boutiques" — on foreign exchanges and in DeFi. Banks will not destroy the gray market, but they will attract the lion's share of newcomers. The key risk for banks is not regulation, but an acute shortage of personnel with real blockchain expertise, without which building a competitive product is impossible.