Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz: geopolitical crisis threatens global oil supplies
June 20, 2026, became the point of no return for the fragile balance in the Middle East. The "Khatam al-Anbiya" Central Command—the main coordinating body of Iran's armed forces—officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to vessel passage. The reason cited was a violation of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision completely dashes hopes for de-escalation that markets had begun to price in just a few days ago. Instead of the anticipated easing of tensions, we are facing a direct blow to one of the most critical nodes of the global energy infrastructure.
Statement from the Military Command
The "Khatam al-Anbiya" Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and threatened further measures if aggression continues. Iranian state media instantly disseminated this information, emphasizing that the trigger was months of conflict following US and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 and subsequent restrictions on movement in the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a geographical point. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through it daily, accounting for about 20% of global volumes and nearly a quarter of seaborne oil trade (data from the US Energy Information Administration). A significant portion of liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the UAE also travels this route. There are virtually no alternative paths for suppliers in the region, so any disruptions here traditionally lead to sharp spikes in price volatility.
Escalation over the Islamabad Memorandum
Just three days prior, around June 17, 2026, a 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was agreed upon. The document stipulated that Iran would ensure the safest and free passage of vessels for the first 60 days and also demanded the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. After the agreement was signed, shipping began to recover, leading to a decline in energy prices.
Now, the new military statement nullifies these agreements. Iran directly accuses Israel of violating the memorandum's terms through actions in Lebanon. The memorandum, which just days ago was lowering oil prices, could now trigger an even stronger surge of interest in the market amid expected supply disruptions.
Analyst Comment: The market has fallen into a trap of false hope. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not just an escalation but a trigger for a structural shift in energy pricing. I expect to see a sharp rise in volatility in the coming sessions, which could affect not only traditional markets but also cryptocurrencies, as investors reassess the risks of a global recession.