Cryptocurrency or Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Really Going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, after which the market entered a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market, on the contrary, is showing stability and predictable dividends. In these conditions, the retail investor faces a difficult choice: where to allocate capital?
My analysis of the situation, based on a survey of leading market experts, shows that there is no consensus on a flow of funds from crypto to stocks. Moreover, estimates vary dramatically—from acknowledging a small movement of capital to completely denying such a trend.
Is there a flow?
Alexander Peresichan from TEKHNOBIT notes that some portion of Russian investors' funds is indeed flowing from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak and fatigue from high volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while the stock market in 2026 has seen attractive dividend stories. Additionally, strict regulation of digital assets adds uncertainty. However, according to him, the scale of this flow is still insignificant.
However, other experts are much more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam is convinced that there is no mass movement of funds and views these instruments as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov from SHARD even notes an outflow from stocks—according to his data, capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption.
Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird provides a compelling argument: the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. Such deep undervaluation, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. Among the pressure factors are geopolitics, sanctions, and the high key rate of the Central Bank.
Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry much higher danger for capital. As Roman Nosov from BCS notes, both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes, but the volatility and expected return of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. Moreover, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of crypto is certainly higher.
This is compounded by specific infrastructure risks that stocks do not have. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments view the crypto market with caution, even considering the emergence of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Analysts' opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. Overlap occurs only in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. Meanwhile, a significant portion of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously stay in crypto, avoiding the bureaucracy of official brokers and tax reporting.
Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The scale is incomparable: the total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is a drop in the ocean compared to the stock market. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while a crypto winter is raging in the crypto industry. During boom periods, these instruments could compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, points of overlap are virtually absent.
My conclusion: the hypothesis of a massive capital flow from crypto to Russian stocks has yet to find convincing confirmation. Markets live their own lives, and their audiences overlap only in a narrow segment. The investor should proceed from their own risk profile and time horizon, rather than chasing imaginary trends.