Surge of Interest in Ethereum in Russia: Analysis of Causes and Risks
According to search engines, queries for Ethereum in Russia have surged sharply. Expert opinions on the reasons for this spike are divided: some see an influx of institutional money and a return of interest after Bitcoin, while others doubt the reality of the demand growth.
An analysis by six market experts highlights the key narratives and risks for those buying Ether for the first time.
Open interest in ETH futures quadrupled in two weeks
Evgeny Popov, editor-in-chief of Invest Future, cites data from the Moscow Exchange: open interest in the June Ethereum index futures contract grew more than fourfold from mid-May to early June — from 86,000 to 368,000 contracts. Trading volumes and the number of transactions also increased sharply.
Popov emphasizes that statistics alone cannot reveal what investors are betting on. Based on the behavior of derivatives market participants, it looks more like an attempt to play a correction: since the start of the year, Ethereum has fallen harder than Bitcoin, and in early June it dropped to around $1,500. For many, this appeared as a chance to buy a major infrastructure asset at a discount.
Several growth drivers
Anatoly Shpakov, trader and blogger, supports the theory of a return of interest after Bitcoin. The rise in queries signals that investors are looking for the "next idea." In his view, ETH has several narratives: working ETFs, potential staking income, and the network's role as infrastructure for DeFi, stablecoins, and applications.
Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at IC "Finam," cites the same set: a bet on institutional money inflow via ETFs, staking income, and the network's role in tokenization and decentralized applications.
Roman Nosov, director of wealthy client relations at "BCS World of Investments," divides investors into those seeking alternatives to instruments in Russia ("shelter" seekers), those experimenting with high risk, and those adding the asset to a diversified portfolio. ETF purchases are available to the first group — in foreign jurisdictions or in the "gray zone" in Russia, but with a high risk of losing contact with the jurisdiction and blocking for Russian residents.
Expectation of a rebound
Fyodor Ivanov, director of analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD," largely shares Evgeny Popov's view: interest grew on expectations of ecosystem development and because Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, held around the $2,000-2,500 mark for several years. The current price is lower, creating expectations of a recovery. Fyodor Ivanov and Evgeny Popov agree that the main role is played by the calculation to recoup the decline.
Is there growth?
Konstantin "CryptoGrandpa" Koshelev, a blogger, is not sure there is a real surge in demand. He noted that he does not observe a rise in interest in Ethereum. According to him, many were scared off by the asset's weakness and the uncertainty of the Ethereum Foundation, as well as Vitalik, who is "hitting the order book."
Konstantin Koshelev sees the same factors — ETFs and staking — differently. For him, ETFs are an unreliable "multiplier," and staking is only a potential driver: in the US, there is still no answer on whether to allow it at the state and bank level. On the positive side, our interlocutor notes the possible mention of ETH in a new cryptocurrency bill.
Volatility is the main risk
Experts agree on risk assessment. Anatoly Shpakov warns: you cannot confuse Google interest with an entry point; mass demand often comes after a strong move. ETFs do not guarantee growth, staking does not protect against a decline, and the network competes with Solana, Tron, and others. He advises buying in parts and with an understanding of the horizon.
Yaroslav Kabakov and Fyodor Ivanov agree with Anatoly Shpakov on the main risk — high volatility. Evgeny Popov shifts the focus from price to development: Bitcoin has already gained the status of "digital gold," while Ethereum still needs to prove the demand for its infrastructure in a world where interest is centered around AI; developer disputes over the network's strategy add further uncertainty. Konstantin Koshelev highlights a separate risk — hacking of DeFi protocols using new AI.
Conclusions
Experts disagree most on whether the surge in demand itself is real. Evgeny Popov and Fyodor Ivanov believe interest has indeed grown — both exchange data and investors' calculations to recoup the decline indicate this. Konstantin Koshelev, on the contrary, sees no growth.
However, there is almost no disagreement on the reasons for potential growth. Most cite the same set: ETFs, staking income, and Ethereum's role as infrastructure for applications — and no one highlights a single main motive.
Opinions on risks are also close. Almost everyone considers high volatility the main one. Roman Nosov adds difficulties with buying ETFs from Russia, Evgeny Popov adds unclear network development prospects, and Konstantin Koshelev adds the threat of hacking DeFi protocols using AI.
My analysis: The rise in interest in ETH in Russia is more of a deferred demand on a correction than a sustainable trend. Until Ethereum shows a clear catalyst (e.g., approval of staking in ETFs or a breakthrough network upgrade), this spike may remain local. The risks of volatility and regulatory uncertainty remain high, especially for retail investors from Russia.