Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: fragile truce collapses, markets in shock
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to vessel passage. The reason is a violation of the Islamabad memorandum by the United States and Israel. This move dashes all hopes for de-escalation that markets had begun to price in just a few days ago.
The decision was made after months of conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 and the imposition of shipping restrictions. Now, Khatam al-Anbiya calls this only a "first step," threatening further measures if aggression continues. Iranian state media have already disseminated the statement, emphasizing that Israel's actions in Lebanon allegedly violate the terms of the memorandum.
Energy Hub Under Attack
The Strait of Hormuz is an artery of global energy. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through it daily, accounting for about 20% of global volumes and nearly a quarter of seaborne oil shipments (data from the US Energy Information Administration). A significant portion of liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the UAE also use this route. There are virtually no alternatives, so any disruption in the strait instantly leads to a sharp increase in energy price volatility.
The Islamabad Memorandum: A Hope That Fell Short
Just three days ago, on June 17, 2026, a 14-point Islamabad memorandum was agreed upon. The document stipulated that Iran would ensure the safest and free passage of vessels for the first 60 days, and also demanded the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Markets reacted immediately: oil prices fell, and shipping began to recover. It seemed the parties were ready for a détente.
However, the new military statement completely invalidates these agreements. Iran claims that Israel's actions in Lebanon violate the terms of the memorandum, rendering it effectively void. Investors, who had already started pricing in reduced geopolitical risks, are now forced to reassess their models.
Expert Opinion: As an analyst, I see that this move by Iran is not just a tactical maneuver but a demonstration of full control over a key transport corridor. Markets, which calmed down after the memorandum was signed, will now face a new wave of uncertainty. I expect a sharp rise in the risk premium in oil futures and, consequently, increased correlation with safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, in turn, may gain support as a hedge against geopolitical instability, but in the short term, volatility will be high.