Russian investors at a crossroads: cryptocurrencies or stocks — where is the money going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin reached its peak, after which a prolonged correction began in the market. Simultaneously, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market, on the contrary, demonstrates stability and predictability. These events present retail investors with a difficult choice: where to allocate capital?
Capital Migration: Myth or Reality?
My analysis of the situation shows that there is no consensus among experts on this issue. For example, Alexander Peresichan from TEKHNOBIT notes that some funds have indeed flowed from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak and fatigue from volatility. He points to a decline in activity on crypto exchanges and the attractiveness of the stock market with its dividends and transparency. However, he emphasizes that this process affects only a small fraction of investors.
At the same time, other experts are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam asserts that there is no mass outflow and views these two directions as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov from SHARD even records an outflow of funds from stocks into bank savings and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird notes that current valuations of Russian companies (a forward P/E multiplier of just 3.7 versus a historical norm of 6.2) completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of private capital into stocks.
Risk and Return: Where is the Balance?
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are unanimous. Cryptocurrencies remain a significantly riskier asset, but with the potential for outsized returns. Roman Nosov from BCS World of Investments reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes, but the volatility and potential returns of the latter are an order of magnitude higher. Over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, in his words, is certainly higher. However, after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be very high.
Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks that stocks do not. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution.
Competition for One Investor or Different Audiences?
Most of the analysts I surveyed lean towards the view that these instruments have fundamentally different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes the users differ greatly: crypto attracts many young, risk-tolerant people who avoid the bureaucracy of official brokers and tax reporting. Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market, pointing to the incomparability of market capitalization (only $2.4 trillion for the crypto market versus trillions for the stock market).
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at this issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, the retail investor goes where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. He believes these assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future.
Conclusions: Where is the Truth?
As you can see, there is no consensus. The hypothesis of a massive outflow of funds from crypto to stocks finds no clear confirmation. Most experts agree only that cryptocurrency remains a riskier but also more profitable instrument. The key factors determining capital flows are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype.
My professional opinion: At this point, we are observing not so much a flow as stagnation and redistribution of capital within the markets themselves. The Russian stock market, despite being undervalued, is not yet attracting mass investors due to high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. The crypto market, in turn, is going through a consolidation phase after the correction. We will likely see clearer dynamics only after a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate or the start of a new cycle in cryptocurrencies. Until then, both markets will exist in parallel, attracting different types of investors with different risk appetites.