Explosive interest of Russians in Ethereum: analysis of reasons and risks
In recent weeks, search queries for Ethereum in Russia have shown a sharp spike. Analysts are divided in their opinions: some see this as an influx of institutional capital and a return of interest after Bitcoin, while others doubt the reality of this surge. Let's figure out what is actually behind this trend and what risks it poses for retail investors.
Open Interest in ETH Futures: Fourfold Growth
A key indicator is data from the Moscow Exchange. Open interest in the June futures contract on the Ethereum index more than quadrupled from mid-May to early June: from 86,000 to 368,000 contracts. At the same time, trading volumes and the number of transactions increased sharply. However, as I have repeatedly noted in my analyses, the volume of open positions alone does not indicate the direction of bets. Judging by the behavior of participants in the derivatives market, this looks more like an attempt to play a correction: since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has fallen more than Bitcoin, and in early June it dropped to $1,500. For many, this looked like a chance to buy a major infrastructure asset at a discount.
Several Growth Drivers
A number of experts link this surge to a return of interest after Bitcoin. Investors are looking for the "next idea," and ETH has several: working ETFs, potential staking income, and the network's role as infrastructure for DeFi, stablecoins, and applications. Others add to this set a bet on an influx of institutional money through ETFs and staking income, and also divide investors into three groups: those seeking an alternative to instruments in the Russian Federation (a safe haven), those experimenting with high risk, and those adding the asset to a diversified portfolio.
Expectation of a Rebound
Many analysts agree that the main role is played by the calculation to recoup the drawdown. Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, has held around the $2,000-2,500 mark for several years. Now the price is lower, which creates an expectation of recovery. This is a classic "buy the dip" model, but it does not guarantee success.
Is There Actually Growth?
Not everyone shares the optimism. Some experts are not sure about the reality of the demand surge. They note that they do not observe a growth in interest in Ethereum, and many are scared by the asset's weakness, the uncertainty of the Ethereum Foundation, and Vitalik Buterin, who is "hitting the order book." They see the same factors—ETFs and staking—differently: ETFs are an unreliable "multiplier," and staking is only a potential driver, as there is no answer yet in the US on whether it will be allowed at the state and bank level. On the positive side, there is a possible mention of ETH in the new cryptocurrency bill.
Volatility is the Main Risk
Experts are unanimous in their assessment of risks. The main one is high volatility. You cannot confuse interest on Google with an entry point: mass demand often comes after a strong move. ETFs do not guarantee growth, staking does not protect against a fall, and the network competes with Solana, Tron, and others. They advise buying in parts and with an understanding of the time horizon. Added to this are difficulties with buying ETFs from Russia, unclear prospects for network development, and the threat of hacking DeFi protocols using AI.
My expert opinion: The Ethereum market is in an accumulation phase after a deep correction. Interest from Russian investors is primarily an attempt to play a rebound from strong support levels. However, fundamental risks remain high: uncertainty around ETFs, competition from other L1s, and internal developer disputes make ETH not the most reliable asset for short-term speculation. For long-term holding—yes, but only with an understanding of all the risks.