Crypto or stocks: where are Russian investors' money actually going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin reached its all-time high, after which the market entered a prolonged correction. Against this backdrop, the Russian stock market, on the contrary, demonstrates stability and predictability, regularly paying dividends. This contrasting dynamic has raised an important question among the expert community: is there a massive capital shift by retail investors from high-risk cryptocurrency to more familiar instruments, such as shares of Russian companies?
Is There a Capital Movement?
Analysts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan (TECHNOBIT) notes that some movement of funds does indeed exist. After the BTC peak in fall 2025 and the subsequent correction, some investors preferred to lock in profits or simply grew tired of the volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 has presented attractive opportunities. Investors are drawn to high dividends and transparent reporting by issuers. Additionally, tighter regulation of digital assets adds uncertainty to the market. However, according to him, this concerns only a small portion of investors—the shift exists, but it is still minor.
Other surveyed experts are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov (Finam) is categorical: there is no massive movement of funds from crypto to stocks. He believes these are fundamentally different investment strategies with different audiences. Fedor Ivanov (SHARD) observes the opposite dynamic: the state of the Russian securities market shows an outflow of funds into bank savings and current consumption. Finally, Yan Pinchuk (WhiteBird) does not record any shift into Russian stocks at all. As an argument, he cites the forward P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. "Current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below the average norm. The very fact of such low valuations completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks," he concludes, pointing to geopolitical pressure, sanctions, and the high key rate of the Central Bank as the main restraining factors.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, analysts are much more unanimous. Roman Nosov (BCS World of Investments) reminds that in Russia, both stocks and crypto belong to the risky asset class. However, the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher than those from securities. At the same time, after deep corrections in both segments, returns can be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is undoubtedly higher. Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees with this view, noting that "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies always carry specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, loss of keys) that are fundamentally absent in stocks. This makes conservative investors wary of the crypto market, even with the emergence of government regulation.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users differ greatly. They overlap only in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. At the same time, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, tax reporting, and bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrency seems much simpler and faster. Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market, pointing to the incomparability of market capitalization. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, the retail investor goes where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. "The best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them," the expert notes, assessing the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high.
Analyst's Conclusions
Contrary to possible expectations, a massive flight from crypto to stocks is not observed in the Russian market. These are two parallel worlds with different audiences, different risk levels, and different dynamics. Crypto remains the domain of risk-oriented and tech-savvy investors, while the stock market attracts more conservative players who value predictability. The current lull in the stock market, supported by low multipliers, speaks more to a lack of hype than a capital shift. My professional view: until a clear catalyst for growth appears in one of the markets, they will exist separately, attracting fundamentally different types of capital.