Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: fragile truce collapses
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason is alleged systematic violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. The decision instantly dashed hopes for de-escalation that markets had priced in just a few days earlier.
This is a direct and sharp contradiction to recent attempts to reduce tensions in the region. The closure of the strait recreates colossal risks for global oil transit, especially at a time when traders had already begun to price in a scenario of détente. The Iranian move is not just a gesture, but a strategic blow to the stability of energy markets.
Statement from the Military Command
The Central Command, representing Iran's highest joint headquarters, called the blockade a "first step" and warned of further measures if "aggression" continues. The conflict escalated after US and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 and the imposition of earlier restrictions on ship passage.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily — about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there are virtually no alternative routes for Gulf countries. Besides oil, large shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait, making the blockade a threat to the entire energy balance.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts for the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also envisioned the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Following this agreement, ship traffic began to recover, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid a potential prolonged supply shock.
However, it is worth noting that US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have not yet confirmed the complete closure of the strait, indicating the opposite. This creates an information vacuum and additional volatility.
Cryptalist Analysis: The market has once again found itself trapped by geopolitics. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a tactical move, but a signal that Iran is willing to sacrifice economic stability for political goals. For cryptocurrencies and risky assets, this means increased correlation with oil prices and a rise in demand for "safe havens" like stablecoins and Bitcoin. Investors should prepare for a period of heightened turbulence.