Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies is tightening in Russia, while the domestic stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their free capital?

A discussion has erupted in the expert community, touching on several key issues. Are Russian retail investors really shifting funds from cryptocurrencies to company stocks? Do these instruments compete for the same person, or do they have fundamentally different audiences? And finally, how do the risks and potential returns for retail players compare over a one-year horizon?

Is there a flow?

Analysts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes that some movement of capital from crypto to stocks is indeed observed. After Bitcoin's peak, the market noticeably declined, and many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. As a result, activity on specialized crypto exchanges has decreased.

At the same time, the stock market in 2026 presented a good opportunity for earnings. Investors are attracted by generous dividends and transparent company histories. Strict regulation of digital assets, according to the expert, adds unnecessary uncertainty to the market. This is why some players are moving free capital into legal and understandable instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies that this concerns only a small portion of investors.

However, other experts surveyed disagree to varying degrees with the thesis of shifting money into stocks. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," believes there is currently no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks. In his view, these directions represent fundamentally different investment strategies.

Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator "SHARD," describes a completely opposite dynamic. Judging by the state of the Russian securities market, there is rather a noticeable outflow of funds from stocks. Most likely, a significant portion of private capital is going into bank savings, and the rest into current consumption.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, is also skeptical about the idea of a flow. He does not observe a flow into Russian stocks, pointing to the fwd P/E multiplier, which is only 3.7 compared to the historical average over the last 10 years of 6.2. Thus, current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. The expert notes an abundance of factors—from geopolitical pressure and sanctions to the extremely high Central Bank interest rate. The very fact of such low valuations, according to Pinchuk, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks.

Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were much more unanimous. In their general opinion, cryptocurrencies traditionally carry a much higher danger to capital.

Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that in Russia, both stocks and crypto belong to the risk class of assets. However, the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher than those of securities. At the same time, after a deep correction in crypto from the highs of July 2026, as well as in the stock market after the 2022 downturn, returns in both segments could be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, in his words, is definitely higher.

This point of view is fully consistent with the official position of Yaroslav Kabakov. He notes that traditional "blue chips" offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. At the same time, cryptocurrencies consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.

Fyodor Ivanov added an important qualitative difference to the list. Digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks that are fundamentally absent in stocks. For this reason, investors accustomed to investing in traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the emergence of state regulation.

Do the instruments compete for the same investor?

On this issue, analysts' opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that the users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a well-diversified portfolio for different economic cycles. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility. At the same time, they categorically do not want to deal with official brokers, tax reports, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" appear more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.

In turn, Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. This is clearly demonstrated by the massive American stock market. The current capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. Consequently, we are looking at two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing this issue solely through the prism of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase, and the retail investor usually goes where the hype is. However, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but such growth is not expected in the near future. At the same time, our interlocutor noted that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.

Conclusions

Most of the experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a large-scale flow of money from Russian retail investors from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan observes such capital movement, but calls its scale small. At the same time, Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of mass transitions. Fyodor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk, in turn, point to reverse or neutral dynamics—outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued market valuations of companies.

On risk assessment issues, analysts are unanimous. Crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns. In contrast, classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently assessed as higher.

On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could well compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection.

My analysis confirms: the Russian retail investor today is not a monolith. Crypto and stocks serve different psychological profiles and time horizons. While the Russian stock market is experiencing a period of extreme undervaluation, crypto enthusiasts continue to seek super-profits in volatility. There is no direct competition for the wallet of one person now, but with a change in the market cycle, the situation could change dramatically.