Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia began tightening regulation of digital assets. Against this backdrop, the stock market, on the contrary, is demonstrating stability and predictable dividends. Naturally, the question arises: are retail investors' funds flowing from high-risk crypto into more understandable stocks?

Is there a capital flow?

My observations show that there is no consensus among market participants. Some experts note a movement of funds but consider it insignificant. Others are confident that there is no mass exodus from cryptocurrencies into stocks — these are fundamentally different investment strategies with different audiences.

One argument in favor of a flow: after Bitcoin's peak, many investors decided to lock in profits and grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while the stock market in 2026 has presented attractive opportunities. Investors are lured by high dividends and issuer transparency. Stricter crypto regulation adds uncertainty, pushing some capital into legal and understandable instruments.

However, there is also a directly opposite opinion. Some analysts claim that no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks is observed. Moreover, according to their data, the Russian securities market is currently seeing a capital outflow. Funds are moving into bank deposits and current consumption, not into stocks.

Skeptics of the flow idea point to fundamental indicators. The forward P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This means companies are undervalued by more than 60%. Such valuation levels, according to a number of experts, completely refute the hypothesis of an influx of private money into stocks. The market is pressured by geopolitics, sanctions, and the high key interest rate of the Central Bank.

Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are much more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry a much higher danger to capital. Both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes, but the risks and expected returns for digital coins are an order of magnitude higher.

At the same time, after deep corrections — both in crypto from the highs of July 2026 and in the stock market after the 2022 downturn — returns in both segments can be very high. However, over a one-year horizon, the aggregate risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.

An important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, conservative investors will view the crypto market with caution, even considering the emergence of state regulation.

Do the instruments compete for the same investor?

Opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. The users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio tailored to different economic cycles.

Among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility. At the same time, they categorically do not want to deal with official brokers, tax reporting, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" appear more stable, the bulk of retail investors — especially the young and risk-prone — consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.

Other experts insist that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. This is clearly demonstrated by scale: the current total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock market capitalization. We are facing two completely different financial worlds.

There is also a view through the lens of economic cycles. It all depends on the specific phase: a retail investor usually goes where the hype is. However, currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. During boom periods, these instruments could well compete for the same person, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of intersection.

Analyst conclusions from Cryptalist

Most of the experts I surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of Russian retail investors' money from crypto to stocks. Only a few note such movement but call its scale small. Others point to reverse or neutral dynamics — an outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued company valuations.

On risk assessment issues, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a more dangerous asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. On a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently assessed as higher.

On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could well compete, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of intersection.

My expert assessment: Currently, we are observing not so much a flow as stagnation in both markets. The Russian stock market is fundamentally undervalued, creating an attractive entry point for long-term investors, but current sentiment and macroeconomic factors are weighing on it. Crypto, in turn, is experiencing a consolidation phase after the correction. Until a clear growth catalyst appears in one of the segments, there will be no significant movement of capital. Investors are more likely to take a wait-and-see position in fiat or deposits.