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In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies is tightening in Russia, while the stock market operates under transparent rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their capital?

The expert community is divided in its assessment of the current situation. The key question is: are Russian retail investors actually shifting funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks, or do these instruments serve fundamentally different audiences? Let's figure it out.

Is there capital movement?

Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes that some capital flow is indeed observed. After Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, the market noticeably declined, and many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased. At the same time, the stock market in 2026 presented an attractive earning opportunity: investors are drawn to good dividends and transparent company histories. Strict regulation, in his opinion, adds unnecessary uncertainty to the crypto market. However, Peresichan clarifies: this concerns only a small share of investors. Thus, a flow exists, but it remains small for now.

Other experts surveyed disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," asserts that there is no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks. He reasonably considers these directions to be fundamentally different investment strategies.

Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD," describes the opposite dynamic. According to him, the Russian securities market is currently seeing an outflow of funds. A significant portion of private capital is moving into bank savings, with the rest going into current consumption.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of the Exchange Trading Department at WhiteBird, is even more skeptical. He does not observe a flow into Russian stocks. This is clearly visible in the forward P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average over the last 10 years of 6.2. Current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. The expert notes an abundance of factors—from geopolitical pressure and sanctions to the extremely high Central Bank interest rate. The very fact of such low valuations, according to Pinchuk, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks.

Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were far more unanimous. In their common view, cryptocurrencies traditionally carry much higher capital risk.

Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that in Russia, both stocks and crypto belong to the risky asset class. However, the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher than those from securities. At the same time, after a deep correction in crypto from the highs of July 2026, as well as in the stock market after the 2022 downturn, returns in both segments could be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, in his words, is undoubtedly higher.

Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees with this view. He notes that traditional "blue chips" offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.

Fyodor Ivanov added an important qualitative difference to the list. Digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. For this reason, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with apprehension, even considering the emergence of state regulation.

Do the instruments compete for the same investor?

On this issue, analysts' opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences.

Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with well-diversified portfolios tailored to different economic cycles. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility. At the same time, they categorically do not want to deal with official brokers, tax reports, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies appear much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" look more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.

Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. This is clearly demonstrated by the massive U.S. stock market. The current total crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock market capitalization. Consequently, we are dealing with two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, everything depends on the specific phase, and retail investors typically go where the hype is. However, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the throes of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during periods of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, our interlocutor noted that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.

Analyst Conclusions from Cryptalist

Most experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of Russian retail investor money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan observes such capital movement but describes its scale as small. Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of mass transitions. Fyodor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics—outflows from stocks into savings and undervalued market valuations of companies.

On risk assessment, analysts are unanimous. Crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently rated as higher.

Regarding competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could indeed compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection.

My expert assessment: The current situation is not a flow but rather a redistribution of risks. Crypto enthusiasts, tired of regulatory pressure and correction, lock in profits but are in no hurry to enter the stock market, which itself is under the weight of macroeconomic factors. We are observing not competition, but the parallel existence of two different worlds, each seeking its own growth catalyst. For the Russian investor, now is the time not to oscillate between instruments, but to clearly define their horizon and risk tolerance.