SBF builds a $100 million prison startup, Tether challenges MiCA, and the US bans the digital dollar
This week, the crypto industry found itself at the epicenter of several tectonic shifts: from the ambitious plans of the convicted FTX founder to Tether's strategic maneuver to bypass European regulations. I analyze the key events reshaping the market landscape.
Sam Bankman-Fried's Ambitions: A Startup Behind Bars
Sam Bankman-Fried, serving a 25-year sentence for fraud, is not wasting time. As it turns out, he is making plans for life after release, telling a cellmate that to "make serious money," he would need between $50 million and $100 million in startup capital. He has already hinted at launching a new crypto project that "everyone will flock to," even appealed to Donald Trump for a presidential pardon, and his parents have hired lobbyists.
FTX's venture investments, including stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, and Solana, collectively valued at $114 billion, were sold off by bankruptcy administrators for a much smaller sum. Despite SBF's potential genius as an investor, his illegal use of client funds makes restoring trust nearly impossible. The market is unlikely to forgive his past sins.
Tether vs. Europe: A Strategy to Bypass MiCA
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has demanded that all crypto platforms obtain a license under the MiCA regulation by July 1. Tether's management deliberately opted out, deeming the requirement to hold 60% of reserves in European banks as risky. Instead, the company chose a smart strategy: investing in partners who already have legal status and will issue fully compliant stablecoins. Thus, Tether will indirectly maintain its presence in the EU without submitting to local regulators.
The forced delisting of USDT in Europe will hit market makers, complicating cross-exchange arbitrage and widening spreads. This poses a serious challenge to market liquidity.
US Bans Digital Dollar Until 2030
The United States is moving toward a legislative ban on CBDCs until at least the end of 2030. A provision prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar is embedded in the affordable housing bill. Lawmakers fear total surveillance of transactions, control over spending, and the displacement of commercial banks.
Private stablecoins, however, are exempt from the ban. This means the world's largest economy is officially exiting the global CBDC race, with stablecoins becoming a tolerated alternative. An interesting signal for the market.
Memecoin Bubble Bursts: Pump.fun Loses 70% of Revenue
Revenue on the Pump.fun platform has plummeted by over 70%. Nearly 96% of traders either lost money or earned no more than $500. Developers announced the burning of tokens worth $370 million (36% of supply), but this is merely a symptom of a massive capital redistribution. Investors are withdrawing liquidity from unregulated instruments, returning funds to TradFi.
The practice of buying assets with no fundamental value has stopped working. The market is becoming safer, forcing traders to seek digital assets with real-world applications.
CME Group Defends Its Monopoly: Lawsuit Against CFTC
The operator of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, will sue the CFTC regulator over its permission for the Kalshi platform to launch perpetual futures. The CME head cites investor protection and the Dodd-Frank Act, but in reality, it's about monopoly. CME holds exclusive licenses for major benchmarks, and the new instrument threatens their control.
A similar pattern is seen with ICE, demanding "equal rules" due to the rise of the Hyperliquid platform. Traditional exchanges fear losing their power.
Global Trend: The Destruction of Communication Privacy
The UK is preparing a law to completely ban social media for those under 16, while France and the EU are pushing an initiative for mass scanning of private messages. Under the pretext of fighting terrorism, governments are forcing citizens to abandon privacy. As Pavel Durov noted, forcing the abandonment of end-to-end encryption won't stop criminals but will make corporate networks of banks and funds vulnerable.
To preserve privacy, users will have to switch to decentralized services. This could become a powerful driver for the crypto industry.
My analysis: The market is going through a cleansing phase—from toxic assets to regulatory challenges. Tether and CME show how major players adapt, while the US ban on CBDCs opens the door for stablecoins. Investors should prepare for a more structured, but less volatile, environment.