Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market entered a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia began tightening regulation of digital currencies. The stock market, on the other hand, offers investors familiar and transparent rules of the game with stable dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their capital?

A discussion has unfolded in the professional community, touching on several key issues. Have Russian retail investors really begun to massively shift funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks? Do these instruments compete for the same person, or do they have fundamentally different audiences? And finally, how do their risks and potential returns compare on a one-year horizon?

Real Capital Flow: Myth or Reality?

Expert opinions on this issue are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TEKHNOBIT, notes that some capital flow does indeed occur. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, many investors rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 has presented attractive earning opportunities. Investors are drawn to high dividends and corporate transparency. Additionally, strict regulation of digital assets adds uncertainty to the market. However, Peresichan emphasizes that this involves only a small fraction of investors.

Other experts surveyed are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," believes there is no massive shift of funds from crypto to stocks. He is convinced these are fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov, Director of AML/KYT Analytics at operator "SHARD," even notes the opposite trend: a noticeable outflow of funds from the Russian securities market. In his view, capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not stocks.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also sees no flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This indicates that current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. According to him, this completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks.

Risk and Return: Who Wins?

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were far more unanimous. In their general opinion, cryptocurrencies traditionally carry much higher capital risk. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. While returns can be very high after a deep correction in both segments, the overall risk of cryptocurrency on a one-year horizon is, in his words, certainly higher.

Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference to the list: digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. For this reason, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the emergence of state regulation.

Competition for the Investor: Different Worlds?

On this issue, analysts' opinions diverge again, though most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes the users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with well-diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility and unwilling to deal with official brokers and tax reporting. For this group, cryptocurrencies appear much simpler and faster.

Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. He points to the massive U.S. stock market, whose capitalization is incomparable to the $2.4 trillion of the entire crypto market. According to him, these are two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, retail investors typically go where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. Pinchuk notes that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them, and he assesses the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high.

Analyst Conclusions

Most experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of Russian retail investor money from crypto to stocks. Only a small portion of capital is actually migrating, but this is not systemic. At the same time, there is a unified assessment of risks: cryptocurrency remains a far more dangerous asset with high return potential, while classic "blue chips" offer a predictable and less volatile outcome. On a short-term horizon, the risks of digital currencies are inherently higher.

Cryptalist Comment: The current situation clearly demonstrates that the Russian retail investor is searching for a new anchor point. While the crypto market is undergoing a correction and the stock market is undervalued, we are observing not so much a capital flow as a freezing of capital awaiting clearer signals. In my view, the key driver in the coming months will be the tightening of crypto regulation, which could push some conservative players toward more legal and understandable instruments like stocks. However, the core of crypto enthusiasts will remain loyal to their principles of decentralization and high volatility.