A $100 million prison startup, Tether's revolt against MiCA, and the ban on the digital dollar: how the crypto landscape is changing
This week, the market is being shaken by several tectonic shifts. From Sam Bankman-Fried's ambitions, plotting a $100 million startup from his prison cell, to Tether's strategic maneuver challenging European regulators. Simultaneously, the US is officially exiting the CBDC race, while the meme coin bubble bursts, leaving 96% of traders at a loss. Let's break down the key events.
SBF's Plan: A Token Behind Bars
The founder of FTX, serving a 25-year sentence for fraud, is already planning his release. His plan is absurdly ambitious: $50–100 million in startup capital and the launch of a new crypto project that, in his words, "will attract everyone." Simultaneously, he has appealed to Donald Trump for a pardon, and his parents have hired lobbyists.
Against this backdrop, the community is once again recalling FTX's venture investments — stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, and Solana, collectively valued at $114 billion. Bankruptcy administrators liquidated them for a fraction of that amount. However, despite SBF's potential genius as an investor, his crimes (illegal use of client funds) make restoring trust nearly impossible. Even if his plan is not a joke, rebuilding his reputation will be extremely difficult.
Tether vs. MiCA: Bypassing Without a License
The European authority ESMA has given crypto platforms until July 1 to obtain a license under the MiCA regulation. Tether has refused this path, deeming the requirement to hold 60% of reserves in European banks as risky for its financial stability. Instead, the company has chosen a circumvention tactic: investing in partners that already have legal status. Through them, fully legitimate stablecoins will be issued, allowing Tether to indirectly maintain its presence in the EU without submitting to local regulators.
The forced delisting of USDT in Europe will hit professional market participants: market makers will have to split liquidity pools, cross-exchange arbitrage will become more complicated, and spreads will widen. This poses a serious challenge to European market liquidity.
US Exits the CBDC Race
The US is moving toward a legislative ban on the digital dollar, at least until 2030. A provision prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC is embedded in an affordable housing bill — this "packaging" allowed it to overcome resistance. American lawmakers fear total surveillance of transactions, control over spending (as in the digital yuan), and the displacement of commercial banks.
Private stablecoins are explicitly exempt from the ban. This means the world's largest economy is officially exiting the global CBDC race, and stablecoins are becoming an alternative that the state is willing to tolerate. For the market, this is a signal: regulation will move toward private solutions, not government-issued digital currencies.
Pump.fun's Collapse: 96% of Traders in the Red
Revenue for the Pump.fun platform, which allowed anyone to issue a token for a few dollars, has plummeted by over 70%. Nearly 96% of traders either lost money or earned no more than $500. Developers announced the burning of $370 million worth of tokens (36% of the supply) to prevent a price drop.
The situation reflects a massive capital outflow from unregulated instruments, which major players view as gambling. Investors are locking in losses and returning funds to TradFi. The practice of buying assets without fundamental value has stopped working. Traders must return to basic rules and seek digital assets with real-world applications — this makes the market safer but also less volatile.
CME Group: Protecting a Monopoly Through the Courts
The operator of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, is suing the CFTC regulator over its permission for the Kalshi platform to launch perpetual futures. CME CEO Terrence Duffy appeals to investor protection, comparing high leverage to the 2008 mortgage crisis. However, the key point lies elsewhere: CME holds exclusive licenses for all major benchmarks on which futures contracts are based. The logic of the lawsuit: "We control the benchmarks, so new instruments on these indices must trade with us." A similar pattern is seen with ICE, demanding "equal rules" due to the rise of the Hyperliquid platform. This is a classic fight for a monopoly under the guise of market concern.
Global Trend: The Destruction of Communication Privacy
The UK government is preparing a law that would completely ban social media for citizens under 16. In France and the EU, an initiative is advancing to mass-scan personal messages on smartphones before they are sent. Under the pretext of fighting terrorism and protecting children, governments are forcing citizens to give up their basic right to privacy.
As Pavel Durov noted, a forced abandonment of end-to-end encryption will not stop real criminals — they can easily write their own closed applications. Ordinary law-abiding citizens will be the ones affected. Weakening encryption systems makes corporate networks of banks and funds vulnerable to hacker attacks. To preserve privacy, users will have to switch to decentralized services — this is a powerful driver for the development of crypto infrastructure.
My conclusion: The market is undergoing a period of cleansing. Bubbles are bursting, regulators are tightening rules, and major players are seeking workarounds. Investors should focus on assets with real value and a technological foundation — these will survive this turbulence.