Cryptocurrencies or Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Going in 2025-2026?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, after which the market entered a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies began to tighten in Russia, while the stock market, on the contrary, continues to operate under transparent rules and consistently pay dividends. This raises a logical question: are Russian retail investors' funds flowing from crypto into stocks, or are these two parallel worlds?
An analysis of the market situation shows that there is no consensus among industry experts. Some specialists note a minor capital shift, others categorically deny its existence, and a third group points to the opposite dynamic: an outflow of funds from stocks into bank deposits and consumption.
Is There a Shift: Three Views on One Issue
My analysis relies on data from several key market players. For example, Alexander Peresichan from TEKHNOBIT notes that after Bitcoin's peak, some investors indeed locked in profits and moved capital into stocks. He attributes this to fatigue from the high volatility of the crypto market and tightening regulation. However, he assesses the scale of this movement as insignificant—it involves only a small share of retail investors.
A completely different viewpoint is held by Yaroslav Kabakov from IK Finam. He is convinced that there is no massive shift of funds from crypto into stocks. In his opinion, these are fundamentally different investment strategies. Crypto enthusiasts are willing to tolerate high risks for super-profits, while conservative investors choose the predictability of blue chips.
Fyodor Ivanov from the operator SHARD is even more categorical. He observes the opposite trend: in the Russian securities market, an outflow of funds is currently more noticeable than an inflow. Capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not into stocks. Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird also sees no shift into Russian stocks, pointing to a critically low forward P/E multiplier (3.7 versus the historical norm of 6.2). According to him, this completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private capital into the stock market.
Risk and Return: Who Wins?
Despite disagreements on the issue of capital shift, experts are nearly unanimous in their assessment of the risk-return ratio. Cryptocurrencies remain a much riskier asset with the potential for both super-profits and instant losses. Roman Nosov from BCS World of Investments emphasizes that over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of crypto is certainly higher than that of stocks. However, after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be comparably high.
Fyodor Ivanov adds an important nuance: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, even with the emergence of state regulation, traditional investors will view the crypto market with caution.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Opinions on this issue diverge once again. Alexander Peresichan believes the audiences are very different. Crypto attracts young, risk-prone users who do not want to deal with brokers and tax reporting. For them, cryptocurrency is simple and fast. Yaroslav Kabakov, on the other hand, insists that the crypto market (capitalization of $2.4 trillion) is incomparable to the stock market, meaning these are two different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry, conversely, is experiencing a crypto winter. During boom periods, these instruments could compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, points of intersection are virtually absent. At the same time, he assesses the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds them in his own portfolio.
Analytical Conclusion
My analysis shows that the hypothesis of a massive shift of funds from crypto into stocks does not find convincing confirmation. The majority of surveyed experts either deny it or note only minor movements. Crypto and stocks remain fundamentally different investment strategies with different audiences, different risks, and different cycles. In current conditions, the Russian stock market is undervalued and offers attractive returns over a long horizon, but the crypto market retains its potential for those willing to tolerate extreme volatility.