Russian investors at a crossroads: is capital moving from crypto to stocks?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction that cooled the enthusiasm of many market participants. At the same time, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market demonstrates stability and clear rules of the game, regularly paying dividends. This dichotomy presents retail investors with a difficult choice: where to direct free capital?
At first glance, logic suggests that funds should flow from the more volatile and regulatory uncertain crypto market into more predictable and transparent stocks. However, as my analysis of leading market experts' opinions shows, reality turned out to be much more complex and multifaceted. Serious disagreements have emerged within the expert community regarding whether we are truly witnessing a massive capital outflow, or whether we are dealing with two fundamentally different investment worlds with minimal audience overlap.
Is there a flow? Opinions are divided
Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, confirms the existence of a certain flow. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, many investors decided to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. Activity on specialized crypto exchanges has decreased. At the same time, the stock market in 2026 offered an attractive alternative in the form of high dividends and transparent reporting. Tightening regulation, in his opinion, only adds unnecessary uncertainty to the crypto market. However, he clarifies that this concerns only a small share of investors—the flow exists but is not yet massive.
However, other experts I interviewed disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," is categorical: there is no massive movement of funds from crypto to stocks. He reasonably considers these directions to be fundamentally different investment strategies, aimed at different types of behavior and risk profiles.
Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD," describes a completely opposite dynamic. According to his observations, the Russian securities market is currently seeing an outflow of funds. A significant portion of private capital, in his opinion, is moving into bank savings and current consumption, rather than stocks.
Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also does not record a flow into Russian stocks. He points to a critically important macroeconomic indicator: the fwd P/E multiplier for the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the average historical value over the last 10 years of 6.2. This means that current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. In his opinion, this fact completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. Low valuations, driven by geopolitical pressure, sanctions, and the high key rate of the Central Bank, are more likely to repel than attract capital.
Risk and Return: Crypto vs. Stocks
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that in Russia, both stocks and crypto belong to the risky asset class. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher than those of securities. Over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, in his words, is certainly higher, although after deep corrections in both segments, returns can be very high.
Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees with this view. He notes that traditional blue chips offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.
Fyodor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference to this list: digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss, bridge problems) that stocks fundamentally lack. For this reason, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
On this issue, opinions diverged again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with well-diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, tax reports, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.
Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. This is clearly demonstrated by the massive U.S. stock market. The current total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock market capitalization. Consequently, we are dealing with two completely different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase, and retail investors usually go where the hype is. However, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry, on the contrary, is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, he notes that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.
Conclusions and Expert Perspective
Most of the experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of Russian retail investors' money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan records such capital movement but describes its scale as small. Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of mass transitions, while Fyodor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics—outflows from stocks into savings and undervalued company market valuations.
My professional analysis: The market is indeed in a phase of reassessment. Crypto, despite the correction, retains its appeal for risk capital, especially among younger audiences who value anonymity and speed. Stocks, particularly Russian ones, appear fundamentally undervalued, but for a massive capital inflow, either a reduction in the key rate or clear signals of de-escalation of geopolitical risks are needed. For now, these two instruments exist in parallel universes, and their overlap is only the domain of experienced and diversified investors.