Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile truce has collapsed
June 20, 2026 — a landmark day for global energy markets. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, Iran's supreme joint headquarters, announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The formal pretext is alleged violations by the US and Israel of the terms of the recently agreed Islamabad Memorandum.
This decision came as a shock to markets that, just a few days earlier, had breathed a sigh of relief at signs of de-escalation. The closure of the strait not only nullifies the agreements reached but also re-creates a critical risk for global oil transit. Markets had already priced in easing tensions, and we are now witnessing a sharp reversal.
Statement from the Military Command
Khatam al-Anbiya called the closure of the strait a "first step" and threatened further measures if aggression continues. The message was immediately broadcast by all Iranian state media. The conflict escalated after strikes by the US and Israel in late February 2026 and the imposition of earlier restrictions on passage through the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz is the artery of the global economy. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through it daily, accounting for about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. These figures are confirmed by the US Energy Information Administration. Additionally, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruptions in this region have always heightened price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf states are virtually nonexistent.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover after this agreement was reached, helping to lower energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid a potential prolonged supply shock.
However, it is worth noting that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been officially confirmed by independent sources. US Vice President JD Vance suggests otherwise, stating a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Analytical Commentary: Markets underestimated Iran's ability to use the "oil weapon" as a tool of political pressure. Even if the closure of the strait turns out to be a temporary tactical measure, we are already seeing explosive growth in volatility on commodity markets. Investors should prepare for a period of high uncertainty: any confirmation of a blockade could trigger a surge in oil prices above $120 per barrel, putting direct pressure on all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.