Banks vs. Exchangers: When will cryptocurrency appear in Russian apps and who will win
The Russian retail investor is on the verge of a tectonic shift. The expert community is unanimous in its opinion that the purchase of digital assets — both cryptocurrencies and digital financial assets (DFAs) — will soon become available directly through mobile banking apps. However, the key question is not "whether this will happen," but "in what form it will occur" and whether the legal sector can completely squeeze out the gray market of exchangers.
Two camps of investors: who needs banks and who doesn't
An analysis of the current situation reveals two fundamentally different segments of users. For beginners, the banking interface will become an ideal gateway into the world of cryptocurrencies. They critically value simplicity, a recognizable brand, and the security provided by a familiar app. Complex seed phrases and self-custody of keys are barriers that banks will successfully eliminate. For this audience, they have a colossal advantage.
A completely different picture emerges with experienced traders. For them, deep liquidity, competitive spreads, and access to global DeFi protocols take center stage. Banking products, burdened by compliance and regulatory costs, are unlikely to offer terms comparable to specialized crypto exchanges. In the battle for this audience, traditional financial institutions will likely lose.
Regulatory brake and early signs
The main constraining factor for the implementation of services remains not a lack of technology, but legislative uncertainty. The key event should be the adoption of the cryptocurrency bill in its second reading, which, according to optimistic forecasts, is expected before the end of July. The largest market players with developed brokerage infrastructure have already announced their plans. As soon as clear "rules of the game" emerge, regional banks will immediately join them, for whom this will become an excellent source of new commission income.
At the same time, according to the most conservative estimates, the first to appear in banking apps will not be classic cryptocurrencies, but DFAs (digital financial assets). Direct trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum may be delayed due to stricter compliance and risk assessment requirements.
Gray market: displacement, but not destruction
As for the fate of illegal exchangers, expert consensus here is almost complete. Banks will be able to significantly push them out of the mass segment by offering convenience and legality. However, completely eliminating the gray market will not be possible. Professional participants who value anonymity and access to global liquidity will continue to use P2P platforms and unlicensed services. After the law comes into effect, the activities of the latter will become criminally punishable, which will force major players to legalize but will not eradicate the shadow sector entirely.
Analyst's opinion: We are witnessing a classic process of institutionalization. Banks will not "kill" the crypto market, but rather "tame" it for the masses. They will create a "sandbox" for beginners but will not be able to compete with global exchanges for professionals. The key indicator of success will not be the number of statements from banks, but the speed and quality of integration after the law is passed. For now, the main risk is the shortage of blockchain expertise within the banks themselves, not regulatory barriers.