Crypto news

This week, Brent crude oil demonstrated its deepest weekly decline in several months, losing about 9% and falling below the $80 per barrel mark. The American benchmark WTI even headed towards $70. However, bitcoin, contrary to the expectations of many market participants, reacted extremely sluggishly to this event, dropping only 1%.

This divergence in dynamics casts doubt on the strength of the connection between the "black gold" market and the digital asset. For a long time, there was a prevailing opinion among traders and analysts that a drop in oil was a harbinger of a global bottom forming for bitcoin. However, real data over the past five years paints a completely different picture.

Mathematical Correlation: Almost Zero

If we set aside emotions and turn to the numbers, it becomes obvious: there is no stable dependence between these assets. The correlation coefficient between bitcoin and oil over the past five years was a paltry 0.036. Let me remind you that this indicator ranges from +1 (complete alignment of trajectories) to -1 (strictly opposite movement). A value of 0.036 is essentially a complete zero, indicating the absence of any statistically significant relationship.

Some might argue that correlation becomes active only during periods of price shocks. However, even with a detailed division of the historical period into "calm" and "volatile" phases, the picture does not change. During calm periods, the correlation is +0.05, and in moments of high volatility, it even goes into a slight negative (-0.02). Over the last 30 days, the indicator has dropped to -0.21, which only indicates a short-term divergence in rates, but not a fundamental connection.

Behavior of "Smart Money" and Miners

An even more convincing proof of the breakdown of this connection is the behavior of long-term holders and miners. While Brent was soaring to its local peaks around $119 at the end of March, bitcoin not only did not fall but also demonstrated enviable stability. Moreover, large investors holding coins for more than 155 days were steadily increasing their positions, and their net purchase balance remained consistently positive. They were not scared by expensive fuel.

Miners, for whom electricity is the main resource, also did not panic. The total network hashrate, reflecting the overall computing power, is confidently growing despite the drop in WTI prices. This testifies to the industry's fundamental belief in long-term prospects, rather than a momentary reaction to energy costs.

The True Source of Pressure

If oil does not control bitcoin, then where should we look for the true source of the current pressure? The answer lies in the derivatives sphere. Since June 11, the open interest in bitcoin futures has grown from $21.83 billion to $23.45 billion. However, at the same time, the funding rate has sharply gone into negative territory — around -0.002%.

Negative funding means that sellers (short sellers) are forced to pay buyers to hold their positions. The growth of open interest against the backdrop of a falling rate indicates that speculators are actively opening short positions, rather than rushing to buy the current dip. This creates ideal conditions for a short squeeze, where any random upward impulse will cause bears to panic-close positions, leading to an avalanche-like rise in quotes.

My professional opinion: The myth of bitcoin's direct dependence on oil has been finally debunked by five years of statistics. Today's BTC dynamics are determined exclusively by internal factors of the crypto market — primarily, the sentiments of speculators in the derivatives market and the Fed's policy. While oil is trading around $79 per barrel, bitcoin is holding the $62,800 level. It is obvious that the next powerful price impulse will be dictated not by the cost of a barrel, but by the decisions of the American regulator and conditions in the derivatives market.