Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? The agreement in Islamabad has cracked.
The geopolitical front is heating up again. On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — the joint headquarters of Iran's armed forces — announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The official reason: a violation of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This move threatens not only the fragile truce but also the stability of global energy markets.
Tehran's decision came as a complete surprise to market participants, who just days earlier were celebrating a reduction in tensions. To recall, in mid-June 2026, the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was signed, which provided for the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's commitment to ensure the free passage of commercial vessels within the first 60 days. This document served as a catalyst for lower oil prices and the restoration of shipping in the region.
What went wrong?
According to a statement from the Iranian command, Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, which is considered a direct violation of the memorandum's terms. "The first step" — as Tehran called the closure of the strait — is accompanied by a warning of harsher measures if the "aggression" continues. Iranian state media unanimously broadcast this position, backing it with references to strikes by the US and Israel in late February 2026.
It is important to understand the scale of the consequences. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily — that is about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Gulf countries, making this region a critical node of global energy security.
Markets bracing for shock
Although there is no official confirmation from the US regarding the closure of the strait — Vice President JD Vance, on the contrary, indicates the opposite — the mere threat is capable of triggering a sharp spike in volatility. Markets have already priced in an optimistic scenario of de-escalation, and now they will have to reassess supply risks. The Islamabad Memorandum, which just days ago helped lower oil prices, may now prove to be a fiction.
My analytical assessment: The situation resembles a classic game of "who blinks first," but the stakes are incredibly high. Even if the closure of the strait turns out to be a temporary measure, the very fact of such a démarche by Iran undermines trust in any future agreements. For the cryptocurrency market, this means a strengthening correlation with oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin. Investors should prepare for a period of heightened turbulence.