Are funds moving from crypto to stocks? Analysis of Russian market trends
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Almost simultaneously, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market continues to operate under clear rules and pays dividends reliably. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their free capital?
My analysis shows that several key discussion topics have emerged within the expert community. First, are Russian retail investors really shifting their savings from cryptocurrency to company stocks? Second, are these instruments competing for the same person, or do they have fundamentally different audiences? And finally, how do their risks and potential returns compare on a one-year horizon?
Real Capital Flow: Myth or Reality?
Experts' opinions on the first question are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, claims that some portion of Russian investors' money has indeed begun to flow from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak and fatigue from constant price swings. In the stock market, by contrast, 2026 offered an attractive opportunity to earn from good dividends and transparent company histories. Strict regulation of digital assets, in his view, only adds uncertainty. However, he clarifies that this involves a small share of investors.
An opposing view is expressed by Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC Finam. He does not observe a massive movement of funds. In his reasoned opinion, these are fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator SHARD, even sees a reverse dynamic: an outflow from stocks into bank savings and current consumption. And Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 against the historical average of 6.2 over the past 10 years. Such a low valuation of Russian companies (more than 60% below the norm) completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks.
Risk and Return: Crypto vs. Blue Chips
In assessing the risk-return ratio, analysts are much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at BCS Mir Investments, reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to the risky asset class. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After a deep correction in both segments, returns could be high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees with this view. He notes that traditional blue chips offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses. Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.
Competition for One Investor: Different Worlds or One Battle?
Opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. Meanwhile, the mass of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously stays in crypto, avoiding official brokers and tax reporting.
Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. This is clearly demonstrated by scale: the entire crypto market's capitalization of $2.4 trillion is incomparable to that of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds. Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing the issue through the lens of economic cycles. Everything depends on the specific phase, and retail investors go where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete in conditions of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future.
My Verdict
Most surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of money from crypto to stocks. This is more of a targeted movement of capital rather than a sustainable trend. Meanwhile, crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while classic blue chips are a predictable and less volatile instrument. In my view, under current conditions, these instruments do not compete for the same investor but serve fundamentally different strategies and risk appetites. The Russian stock market appears undervalued, but for a massive inflow of capital from the crypto sphere, stronger catalysts are needed than just a Bitcoin correction.