A $100 million prison startup and Tether's revolt against the EU: how SBF and stablecoins are reshaping the crypto world
The week was eventful: from the ambitious plans of the convicted FTX founder to Tether's strategy for circumventing European regulations. We break down the key events shaping the new landscape of the crypto industry.
Sam Bankman-Fried's Ambitions: A Prison Startup
Sam Bankman-Fried, serving a 25-year sentence for fraud at FTX, is already making plans for life after release. According to sources close to him, he estimates the necessary starting capital for "serious earnings" at $50–$100 million and hints at a new crypto project that "everyone will flock to." Simultaneously, he has appealed to Donald Trump for a pardon, and his parents have hired lobbyists. Interestingly, FTX's venture assets (stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, Solana) were valued at $114 billion at the time of bankruptcy, but administrators sold them off at tens of times less. Most commentators agree: SBF may be a brilliant investor, but his crimes (illegal use of client funds) make a return of trust unlikely.
Tether vs. MiCA: A Strategy of Circumvention
The European authority ESMA has demanded that all crypto platforms obtain a license under the MiCA regulation by July 1, 2023, or face a complete withdrawal from the EU. Tether refused the license, citing the risky requirement to hold 60% of reserves in European banks. Instead, the company is investing in partners that already have legal status, through which fully legitimate stablecoins will be issued. Thus, Tether will indirectly maintain its presence in the European Union without direct subordination to local regulators. The forced delisting of USDT in Europe will hit market makers: the splitting of liquidity pools will complicate cross-exchange arbitrage and widen spreads.
Ban on the Digital Dollar in the US
The US is moving toward a legislative ban on the issuance of a CBDC until the end of 2030. A provision prohibiting the Federal Reserve from creating a digital dollar is embedded in the affordable housing bill—this "packaging" allowed it to overcome resistance. Lawmakers fear total surveillance of transactions, programmable money (as in the digital yuan), and the displacement of commercial banks. Private stablecoins are exempt from the ban. The world's largest economy is officially exiting the global CBDC race, and stablecoins are becoming an alternative that the state is willing to tolerate.
The Collapse of the Meme Coin Hype
Revenues of the Pump.fun platform have plummeted by over 70%. The platform allowed token issuance for just a few dollars, leading to an explosive increase in the number of new coins, but nearly 96% of traders either lost money or earned no more than $500. To prevent a price crash, developers announced the burning of tokens worth $370 million (36% of the supply). This situation reflects a redistribution of capital: investors are locking in losses, withdrawing liquidity from unregulated instruments, and returning funds to TradFi. The practice of buying assets without fundamental value has stopped working—the market is becoming safer, returning to assets with real utility.
CME Group Defends Its Monopoly
The operator of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, is suing the regulator CFTC over permission granted to the Kalshi platform to launch perpetual futures. CME CEO Terrence Duffy appeals to investor protection and the Dodd-Frank Act, but in reality, CME holds exclusive licenses for the benchmarks on which futures are built. The lawsuit combines investor protection and monopoly defense: "we control the benchmarks, so new instruments should trade with us." A similar pattern is observed with ICE, demanding "equal rules" due to the growth of the Hyperliquid platform.
The Destruction of Communication Privacy
The UK government is preparing a law for a complete ban on social media (Instagram, TikTok, YouTube) for citizens under 16, while the EU is advancing an initiative to scan private messages before they are sent. Under the pretext of fighting terrorism and protecting children, governments are forcing citizens to give up their right to privacy. As Pavel Durov noted, a forced abandonment of end-to-end encryption will not stop criminals but will harm ordinary users. Weakening encryption makes corporate networks of banks and funds vulnerable to hacker attacks, and users will have to switch to decentralized services to maintain privacy.
My analysis: These events are not chaos but a clear signal: the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a phase of maturity. SBF, Tether, meme coins—all are elements of the old paradigm giving way to a more structured system. Investors should closely monitor regulatory changes and shift to assets with real value rather than speculative bubbles.