Banks vs Exchangers: When will cryptocurrency appear in mobile apps in Russia
Russian retail will soon be able to buy cryptocurrency and digital financial assets (DFAs) directly through familiar banking apps, bypassing third-party exchange points. It is not a question of "if," but "when" and in what format. Experts agree that legal access to digital assets through banks will become a reality immediately after the relevant bill is passed, but they disagree on the timeline, implementation format, and impact on the shadow sector.
Two Scenarios for Retail
The most cautious forecast was voiced by Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam." He is confident that access through banking apps will appear, but primarily in the form of DFAs. Direct purchase of cryptocurrency, in his opinion, remains questionable due to strict regulation and rigorous compliance requirements. Other market participants, such as Roman Nosov from "BCS World of Investments," advise waiting for the final version of the bill, initiated by the Bank of Russia. The document is expected to be adopted in the second reading before the end of July.
The key difference in opinions concerns user segmentation. Alexander Nam, representing MTS Fintech, divides retail clients into two categories: beginners and experienced investors. For beginners, simplicity, trust, and security are critically important. A banking service with its broad audience, well-known brand, and familiar interface will become an ideal guide for them into the world of digital currencies. They will not have to independently figure out crypto wallets and seed phrases. For this group, banks have a huge advantage.
On the other hand, experienced traders prefer to work directly with exchanges and DeFi protocols. For them, favorable exchange rates, high liquidity, and minimal fees are important. In this battle for professionals, banks will likely lose unless they provide access to global liquidity pools and offer anonymity, which is unlikely under strict regulation.
Shadow Market: Displacement, Not Elimination
Regarding the future of gray exchangers, expert opinions are almost unanimous. Banks will significantly reduce their share in the mass segment, but they will not be able to completely eliminate the shadow market. Illegal players will weaken because the emergence of convenient and profitable banking products will attract the bulk of clients. However, the professional audience will continue to choose anonymity and access to global liquidity. Additionally, after the law comes into effect, the activities of unlicensed points will become criminally and administratively punishable, forcing major players to legalize and compete with banks within the legal framework.
Cryptalist Analytics: The market is on the verge of structural changes. Banks will gain a powerful tool for attracting new audiences, but their main challenge will not be competition with exchangers, but a shortage of specialized personnel and the need to integrate complex blockchain technologies into familiar infrastructure. The winner will be the one who can combine the trust of traditional banking with the flexibility and speed of the crypto market.