Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: fragile ceasefire collapses
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited was violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This move directly undermines recent efforts to de-escalate the conflict and once again creates enormous risks for global oil transit. Markets, which had already begun pricing in reduced tensions, were caught off guard. Tehran's decision is not just harsh rhetoric but a real threat to the stability of global energy flows.
Statement from the Military Command
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if "aggression" continues. The message was disseminated by all key Iranian state media. This démarche followed a series of strikes by the US and Israel in late February 2026 and the tightening of previous restrictions on passage through the strait.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily—about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all maritime trade in "black gold." These figures are provided by the US Energy Information Administration. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through here. Any disruptions in this region have always increased price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for the US to end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover after this agreement was reached, helping to lower energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation could once again draw attention to supply issues amid a potential prolonged supply shock.
It is important to note that there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure from independent sources yet. US Vice President JD Vance suggests the opposite, stating a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, the very fact of such a statement from Tehran is a powerful signal to the market.
My expert commentary: Markets that had already priced in "peace dividends" will now face a new wave of uncertainty. Even if the blockade is not physically implemented, the mere threat of closing Hormuz is a trigger for rising insurance premiums and speculative pressure on oil futures. In the short term, we will see a sharp spike in energy prices, which will inevitably impact the crypto market, which is sensitive to macroeconomic shocks. Investors should prepare for increased volatility.