Cryptocurrency or stocks: where are Russian investors' money actually moving?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, Russia is tightening regulation of digital assets, while the domestic stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. This dichotomy has raised several key questions among the expert community: is there a capital flow from crypto to stocks, do these instruments compete for the same investor, and how do their risks and potential compare over a one-year horizon?
Is there a capital flow?
Analysts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes capital movement but calls it insignificant. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, many investors took profits or grew tired of volatility. Some of these funds did move to the stock market, where interesting opportunities with transparent reporting and dividends emerged in 2026. The tightening of crypto regulation, in his view, only reinforced this trend, although the scale of the flow remains limited.
However, other experts surveyed are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov from IK "Finam" argues that there is no mass transition and views these directions as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov from the operator "SHARD" even observes the opposite dynamic: an outflow of funds from stocks to bank deposits and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird supports his position with data: the fwd P/E multiplier for the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2. Such undervaluation, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of private capital inflow into stocks.
Risk and return: a unified picture
Experts are more unanimous in assessing the risk-return ratio. Roman Nosov from "BCS World of Investments" reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky assets, but the volatility and potential of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. Over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is certainly higher. Yaroslav Kabakov adds that "blue chips" offer more predictable returns with significantly lower risk, while cryptocurrency retains the potential for both super-profits and instant losses.
Fedor Ivanov emphasizes infrastructure risks unique to crypto: risks of hacks, key loss, and regulatory uncertainty. This makes it unattractive for conservative investors, even with the emergence of state regulation.
Competition for the same investor
Most analysts lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan notes that the audiences only overlap in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. Meanwhile, a significant portion of retail investors, especially young people, consciously choose crypto due to ease of entry, anonymity, and speed, avoiding broker bureaucracy and tax reporting.
Fedor Ivanov insists that the crypto market with a capitalization of $2.4 trillion is not a direct competitor to the securities market—these are two different financial worlds. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles: the private investor goes where there is hype. Currently, there is no hype in Russian stocks, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. In his opinion, the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them, and he himself holds them in his portfolio, assessing the expected return over a 5–10 year horizon as very high.
Conclusions
The hypothesis of a massive capital flow from crypto to stocks is not confirmed by the majority of experts surveyed. Only a minor outflow has been recorded, which is more a result of profit-taking rather than a change in investment direction. Crypto remains a riskier but potentially more profitable asset, attracting its own audience. The Russian stock market, on the other hand, is experiencing a period of deep undervaluation, making it attractive for long-term investors willing to wait.
Expert opinion: The current situation is not competition, but rather the parallel existence of two different investment universes. For the retail investor, the choice between them is currently determined not so much by fundamental indicators as by personal risk tolerance and willingness to interact with regulators. As long as there is no hype in stocks and no stability in crypto, the overlap of audiences will be minimal.