Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: ceasefire collapses, oil markets in danger
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — Iran's highest joint headquarters — has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is violations by the United States and Israel of the terms of the recent Islamabad Memorandum.
This decision completely nullifies the fragile truce reached just a few days ago. Markets, which had already begun pricing in a reduction in geopolitical risks, now face a new supply shock. The Strait of Hormuz is a key artery of global energy: approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through it daily, accounting for about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Additionally, significant volumes of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE transit through the strait.
Recall that the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The document also envisioned the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Shipping had begun to recover, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
Escalation: From Truce to Confrontation
The new statement from the Iranian command effectively annuls these agreements. Tehran regards Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. The Iranian command calls the closure of the strait a "first step" and warns of further measures if the "aggression" continues.
However, it is worth noting that there has been no official confirmation of the strait's closure from the American side so far. US Vice President JD Vance, in a recent statement, indicated the opposite, focusing on a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Cryptalist Analysis: Oil markets are re-entering a zone of high volatility. If the blockade of the strait is confirmed and prolonged, we could see a sharp spike in crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. There are virtually no alternative routes for Gulf countries, and the strategic reserves of the US and other consumers are not limitless. For the crypto market, this creates a classic "flight to safe assets" scenario — Bitcoin could gain support as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability, but a short-term correction due to panic cannot be ruled out.