Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but soon the market entered a prolonged correction. At the same time, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their free capital?

A discussion has erupted in the expert community around several key questions. Are Russian retail investors really shifting funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks? Do these instruments compete for the same person, or do they have fundamentally different audiences? And finally, how do their risks and potential returns compare over a one-year horizon? Analysts' answers, as often happens, are divided.

Is There Capital Movement?

Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes that some Russian investors' money has indeed flowed from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak and fatigue from high volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 has offered an attractive earning opportunity thanks to high dividends and transparent corporate reporting. Additionally, tighter regulation adds uncertainty to the digital asset market. However, Peresichan emphasizes that this concerns only a small fraction of investors.

Other experts are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam Investment Company, argues that there is no mass movement of funds. He views cryptocurrencies and stocks as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator SHARD, even observes the opposite trend: an outflow of funds from stocks into bank savings and current consumption. According to him, a significant portion of private capital is moving into cash.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also does not see a flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the past 10 years. Current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm, which, in his view, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks. Among the pressure factors are geopolitics, sanctions, and the high key interest rate of the Central Bank.

Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry much higher capital risk. Roman Nosov from BCS World of Investments reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky assets, but the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After deep corrections, returns in both segments can be very high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.

Yaroslav Kabakov agrees with this view: "blue chips" offer more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (hacks, loss of keys) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the emergence of state regulation.

Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?

Opinions here diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. However, among crypto buyers, there are many who tolerate high volatility but categorically refuse to deal with official brokers and tax reporting. For this group, cryptocurrency seems simpler and faster.

Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. For clarity, he cites the scale of the U.S. stock market: the current capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock capitalization. These are two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. Retail investors go where there is hype. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, and a crypto winter is raging in the crypto industry. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, Pinchuk estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and holds them in his own portfolio.

Conclusions from Cryptalist Analyst

Most surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of Russian retail investors' money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan observes such movement but describes its scale as small. Others point to the absence of mass transitions, the opposite trend, or undervalued market valuations of companies.

On risk issues, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while classic "blue chips" offer a predictable and less volatile outcome. On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that of fundamentally different audiences, which overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced investors.

My professional opinion: The current situation is not so much a flow as a redistribution of attention. The crypto market is going through a consolidation phase after the correction, while the Russian stock market remains deeply undervalued due to structural factors. There is no direct competition for the retail investor's wallet yet. However, as soon as one of the markets shows a convincing upward trend, we may witness a real liquidity flow.