Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies tightened in Russia, while the stock market continues to operate under clear rules and delights investors with dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their savings? A debate has erupted in the expert community: are Russian retail investors actually moving funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks, or do these instruments initially attract completely different audiences?

Is There Capital Movement?

Analysts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes the existence of such a flow. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined. At the same time, the stock market in 2026 has offered opportunities to earn from attractive dividends and transparent corporate reporting. The tightening of crypto regulation, in his view, adds unnecessary uncertainty to the market, pushing some players toward legal instruments. However, he clarifies that this involves only a small share of investors.

However, other experts disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam", is categorical: there is currently no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks. He believes these are fundamentally different investment strategies aimed at different types of investors.

Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD", describes the opposite dynamic. According to his data, the Russian securities market is rather seeing an outflow of funds. A significant portion of private capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not stocks.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also sees no flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the 10-year historical average of 6.2. Current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. In his opinion, this fact completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks. The market is under pressure from geopolitics, sanctions, and the high key rate of the Central Bank.

Risk and Return: What Weighs More?

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at BCS World of Investments, reminds that both stocks and crypto in Russia are classified as risky assets. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After deep corrections—both in crypto from the highs of July 2026 and in the stock market after the 2022 downturn—returns in both segments could be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is definitely higher.

Yaroslav Kabakov agrees with this view. He notes that traditional "blue chips" offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrency, meanwhile, consistently retains the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.

Fyodor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the emergence of state regulation.

Competition for a Single Investor?

On this issue, analysts' opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences.

Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility and categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers and tax reporting. For this group, cryptocurrency seems much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" appear more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto.

Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. He points to the scale: the current total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at this issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, retail investors go where there is hype. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for a single person during periods of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, he notes that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds them in his own portfolio.

Conclusions from Cryptalist Analyst

Most surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of Russian retail investor money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan notes such movement, but describes its scale as small. Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of an absence of mass transitions. Fyodor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics—an outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued market valuations of companies.

On risk assessment issues, analysts are unanimous. Crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to a year, the risks of digital currencies are deemed to be higher.

On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that the audiences are fundamentally different. They overlap only in a narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could well compete, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of overlap.

My comment: The market clearly signals that investors have become more pragmatic. For now, crypto remains a field for high-risk speculation, while the stock market is for long-term accumulation. Capital flow, if it occurs, is more likely due to fatigue from volatility rather than a conscious choice in favor of "reliability." Until regulators create clear and safe conditions for crypto investments, these two worlds will exist in parallel, attracting different types of capital.