Iran announces the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile ceasefire has collapsed
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — the highest joint headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces — announced the immediate closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The official reason is alleged ongoing violations by the United States and Israel of the terms of a recently signed memorandum.
This decision came as a shock to global energy markets. In effect, it nullifies the de-escalation efforts that, just a few days ago, offered hope for stabilization. Markets had already begun pricing in a "peace scenario," and now we are witnessing a sharp reversal of the trend.
Causes and Consequences
The Khatam al-Anbiya Command called the blockade a "first step" and threatened further measures if "aggression" continues. The statement was immediately amplified by all Iranian state media. The conflict escalated after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, which led to the imposition of earlier restrictions on vessel passage through the strait.
Let me remind you that approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily — that is roughly 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade (data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration). Additionally, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries.
The Islamabad Memorandum: An Illusion of Peace
Just three days ago, on June 17, 2026, the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was agreed upon. It stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. In exchange, the U.S. was to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Vessel traffic indeed began to recover, leading to a temporary decline in energy prices.
However, Tehran now claims that Israel's actions in Lebanon and ongoing "violations" by Washington render the memorandum invalid. Thus, we are back to square one, but with much higher stakes.
Markets and Outlook
Earlier, the memorandum quickly led to a drop in oil prices. The current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid a potential long-term supply shock. However, there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure yet — U.S. Vice President JD Vance has already indicated the opposite, stating a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions.
My professional opinion: Even if the blockade turns out to be temporary or a bluff, the mere fact of such a statement at a time when markets believed in a détente creates immense volatility. For the crypto market, this means increased correlation with oil and a strengthening of "risk-off" sentiment, which could temporarily dampen appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Watch for official confirmations — they will be the trigger for the next move.