A $100 million prison startup, Tether's revolt against MiCA, and the collapse of meme coins: a week of tectonic shifts
This week in the crypto industry has been unusually eventful. We are witnessing several fundamental processes simultaneously: from the ambitious plans of the convicted FTX founder to Tether's strategic maneuver to circumvent European regulation, from a legislative ban on the digital dollar in the US to the collapse of the meme-coin market. Let's break down the key events.
Sam Bankman-Fried: Prison Startup and Hope for a Pardon
Sam Bankman-Fried, serving a 25-year sentence, appears not to be wasting time. According to information from his cellmates, SBF is making plans for life after release, for which he will need startup capital ranging from $50 to $100 million. He mentions a certain cryptocurrency project that, in his words, "will attract everyone." Simultaneously, he has appealed to Donald Trump for a presidential pardon, and his parents have already hired lobbyists. The topic of FTX's venture investments has resurfaced in the community — stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, and Solana, which were worth $114 billion at their peak but were sold off by bankruptcy administrators for pennies. My opinion: even if SBF is a brilliant investor, trust in him has been completely destroyed. Any new project of his will be perceived as a toxic asset.
Tether vs. MiCA: A Strategy of Circumvention Without Submission
The European authority ESMA has issued an ultimatum: by July 1, all crypto platforms must obtain a license under the MiCA regulation. Tether made a decisive choice to refuse the license, deeming the requirement to hold 60% of reserves in European banks a threat to its financial stability. Instead, the company is choosing a path of indirect presence: investments in partners who already have legal status, through whom fully legitimate stablecoins will be issued. This is an elegant but risky move. The forced delisting of USDT in Europe will deal a serious blow to market makers, complicate inter-exchange arbitrage, and widen spreads. The EU market will effectively be left without its main liquidity tool.
Digital Dollar Banned: The US Exits the CBDC Race
The United States is moving toward a legislative ban on issuing a digital dollar (CBDC) at least until 2030. The corresponding provision is embedded in a bill on affordable housing — such "packaging" allowed it to bypass the resistance that had stalled a separate anti-CBDC document. American lawmakers fear total surveillance, control over spending, and the displacement of commercial banks. Notably, private stablecoins are exempt from the ban. This means the world's largest economy is officially exiting the global CBDC race, and stablecoins are becoming the only acceptable alternative.
Meme-Coin Crash: Bubble Bursts, Capital Moves to TradFi
Revenue on the Pump.fun platform, which allowed anyone to issue a token for a few dollars, has collapsed by more than 70%. Nearly 96% of traders either lost money or earned no more than $500. Developers announced the burning of tokens worth $370 million (36% of the supply) in an attempt to stop the decline. This is not just a correction, but a large-scale process of capital redistribution. Investors are locking in losses, withdrawing liquidity from unregulated instruments that major players rightly regard as gambling, and returning funds to TradFi. The market is becoming more mature: traders must seek assets with real value.
CME Group: Protecting a Monopoly or Caring for Investors?
The operator of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME Group, is suing the regulator CFTC over its permission for the Kalshi platform to launch perpetual futures. The head of CME appeals to investor protection, comparing high leverage to the 2008 mortgage crisis. However, behind this lies an obvious defense of a monopoly: CME holds exclusive licenses for all major benchmarks. The logic is simple: "we control the indices, so new instruments based on them should be traded with us." A similar pattern is observed with ICE, which demands "equal rules" due to the growth of the Hyperliquid platform.
Destruction of Communication Privacy: A Global Trend
The UK is preparing a law banning social media for citizens under 16, while in France and the EU, an initiative for mass scanning of personal messages before sending is advancing. Under the pretext of fighting terrorism and protecting children, governments are forcing citizens to give up the basic right to privacy. As Pavel Durov rightly noted, a forced abandonment of end-to-end encryption will not stop criminals — they will simply write their own closed applications. Ordinary law-abiding citizens will be the ones affected. The weakening of encryption systems makes corporate networks of banks and funds vulnerable to hacker attacks. The only way to preserve privacy is to transition to decentralized services.
Analytical Conclusion: This week shows that the crypto industry is entering a phase of harsh consolidation and a struggle for survival. Regulators, traditional finance, and states are beginning to dictate their terms, and those who cannot adapt — whether it be Tether, meme-coins, or even former kings of FTX — risk being left behind. The market is maturing, but the price for this is the loss of illusions and anonymity.