Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile truce collapses
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — Iran's highest joint headquarters — announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited was violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision directly contradicts recent de-escalation efforts and once again creates serious risks for global oil transit. Markets that had already priced in expectations of a détente now face a harsh reality.
Statement from the Military Command
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if aggression continues. The information was disseminated through all major Iranian state media outlets.
This statement marks the culmination of a conflict that began after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, which led to the imposition of earlier restrictions on passage through the strait.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily — accounting for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and nearly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Additionally, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruptions in this region traditionally amplify price volatility, as alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for the U.S. to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover following this agreement, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian military effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum.
Earlier, the memorandum quickly led to lower oil prices, but the current situation once again focuses market attention on supply risks amid a potential prolonged shock.
However, it is worth noting that there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure yet. U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggests otherwise, adding to the uncertainty.
Cryptalist Analysis: This episode is a classic example of how geopolitical risks can override market expectations. For the crypto market, which often correlates with oil prices during periods of global instability, the closure of Hormuz is a signal for increased volatility. Investors should prepare for a rise in demand for safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin, if the situation is not quickly resolved.