Analysts' debate: Are Russian investors' funds moving from cryptocurrencies to stocks?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to direct their capital? A debate has erupted among experts about whether there is a flow of funds from crypto to stocks, whether these instruments compete for the same investor, and how their risks and returns compare.
Is There a Capital Flow?
Expert opinions on this issue are sharply divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, argues that a certain flow does exist. After Bitcoin's peak in fall 2025, many market participants, tired of volatility or looking to lock in profits, began withdrawing funds from crypto exchanges. The appeal of the stock market in 2026, he says, is driven by high dividends and corporate transparency. Strict regulation of digital assets adds uncertainty, pushing some players toward more understandable and legal instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies that this involves only a small share of investors.
However, other analysts surveyed disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," notes that no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks is observed. In his view, these are fundamentally different investment strategies targeting different types of investors. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD," sees the opposite trend: according to his data, there is an outflow of funds from the Russian stock market—capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also does not see a flow into Russian stocks. He points to the extremely low forward P/E multiplier (3.7 versus the historical average of 6.2), which, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of an influx of retail funds.
Risk and Return: Crypto vs. Stocks
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were more unanimous. Both cryptocurrencies and stocks in Russia are considered risky asset classes, but the risks of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that crypto market volatility is incomparable to the stock market. However, after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is definitely higher. Yaroslav Kabakov adds that "blue chips" offer more predictable returns with significantly lower risk, while crypto retains potential for both super-profits and instant losses. Fedor Ivanov emphasizes that digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss) that stocks fundamentally lack.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. Overlap occurs only in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. Meanwhile, the mass of retail investors, especially young and risk-tolerant ones, consciously stays in crypto, avoiding bureaucracy and tax reporting. Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market, pointing to incomparable scales: the entire crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion is nowhere near the stock market. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles: investors go where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could compete in conditions of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future.
Conclusions and Analysis from Cryptalist
The majority of surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of Russian retail investor money from crypto to stocks. Those who note capital movement describe it as insignificant. On risk assessment, analysts are united: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while stocks are a more predictable and less volatile instrument. On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that the audiences are fundamentally different, overlapping only in the narrow segment of experienced investors.
My Expertise: This debate perfectly illustrates the current state of the market. We are observing not so much a flow as a "freeze" of capital. Investors, disillusioned with crypto volatility but seeing no clear growth drivers in Russian stocks due to high rates and geopolitics, prefer cash or deposits. A real flow will only begin when one of these markets offers a convincing and sustainable trend. For now, we have two isolated liquidity pools, not a single capital flow.