Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market operates under transparent rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors naturally wonder: where is it more profitable to invest now—cryptocurrencies or stocks?

My analysis shows that there is no consensus among market experts. Some note capital flows from crypto to stocks, others deny a massive shift, and still others see an outflow of funds from the stock market into bank deposits and consumption.

Capital Flow: Fact or Myth?

According to several analysts, some Russian investors' funds have indeed begun to move from cryptocurrencies to stocks. The logic is simple: after Bitcoin's peak in fall 2025, the market noticeably declined, and many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while the stock market in 2026 offers opportunities to earn from dividends and transparent corporate reporting. Tightening regulation of digital assets only adds uncertainty, pushing conservative players toward legal and understandable instruments. However, this involves only a small share of investors.

Yet other experts disagree with this thesis. They argue that no massive shift of funds from crypto to stocks is observed. On the contrary, these directions represent fundamentally different investment strategies with different audiences. Moreover, the current state of the Russian securities market rather indicates a capital outflow. A significant portion of private funds is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not stocks.

Skeptics also note that the forward P/E multiplier for the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the past 10 years. That is, valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. Such low quotes, in their view, completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. Too many factors—from geopolitics and sanctions to the high key rate of the Central Bank—are pressuring the market.

Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are much more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry significantly higher capital danger. Both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes, but the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. At the same time, after deep corrections in both segments, returns can be very high. However, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.

The key qualitative difference is the infrastructure risks inherent in digital currencies and absent in stocks. For this reason, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.

Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?

Most analysts agree that the audiences for these products differ significantly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with well-diversified portfolios across different economic cycles. However, among those who buy crypto, many are willing to tolerate high volatility. They categorically do not want to deal with official brokers, tax reporting, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" appear more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.

There is also an opinion that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered direct competitors to the securities market. This is clearly demonstrated by scale: the current total crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock market capitalization. We are facing two completely different financial worlds.

Another perspective suggests viewing this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. It all depends on the specific phase: retail investors typically go where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during periods of rapid growth, but such growth is not expected in the near future. At the same time, the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. I assess the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high.

Conclusions

Most surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of Russian retail investors' money from crypto to stocks. Only a few note such capital movement, calling its scale small. Meanwhile, others point to the absence of mass transitions or even reverse dynamics—outflows from stocks into savings and undervalued company valuations.

On risk assessment, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently higher.

On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that the audiences are fundamentally different. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection.

Cryptalist's Comment: In my view, the current situation is a classic "market without a leader." Neither crypto nor Russian stocks currently offer an obvious scenario for quick and easy profits. However, long-term investors should consider the undervalued Russian stock market: current multipliers are historically low, and sooner or later they should return to average levels. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, remain an instrument for those willing to tolerate extreme volatility and have a long investment horizon.