Russian investors fleeing crypto for stocks? Market analysis and expert opinion breakdown
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Against this backdrop, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market continues to operate under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. A natural question arises: is there a massive capital outflow from retail investors moving from cryptocurrencies to stocks? My analysis and a survey of key market players show that there is no clear answer, and the situation is much more complex than it seems at first glance.
Is There an Outflow?
Experts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, confirms some movement of funds. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, many investors locked in profits or simply grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges decreased, while the stock market, on the contrary, presented attractive opportunities: high dividends and transparent corporate reporting. The tightening of regulation, in his view, only adds uncertainty, pushing some capital into more understandable and legal instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies that this concerns only a small fraction of investors.
Other surveyed experts are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam", is categorical: there is no massive outflow. He believes that cryptocurrencies and stocks are fundamentally different investment strategies, and their audiences overlap only slightly. Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator "SHARD", even notes a reverse dynamic: according to his data, funds are moving not from crypto to stocks, but from stocks to bank savings and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also sees no outflow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. Such undervaluation of the market, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private funds.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the balance of risk and potential profit, experts were much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealthy Client Relations at "BCS World of Investments", reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky assets. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. At the same time, after deep corrections—both in crypto following the highs of July 2026 and in the stock market after the 2022 downturn—returns in both segments can be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is undoubtedly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees with this view. He notes that "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses. Fyodor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference to the list: digital currencies always carry specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
On this issue, analysts' opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with well-diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers and tax reporting. For them, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, the bulk of retail investors, especially the young and risk-prone, consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.
Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The current total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase, and the retail investor typically goes where the hype is at the moment. However, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry, on the contrary, is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, Pinchuk notes that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them, and he assesses the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high.
Conclusions from the Cryptalist Analyst
Most surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive outflow of money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan notes such movement, but describes its scale as small. The others point to the absence of mass transitions, reverse dynamics, or a significantly undervalued market. On risk assessment, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that the audiences are fundamentally different.
My Expertise: The situation in the Russian market reflects a global trend: after a hype cycle, capital moves to "safe havens." However, I believe that the current undervaluation of Russian stocks is a unique opportunity for long-term investors. Crypto will remain an ultra-risky instrument for speculators, and their paths will only cross in the portfolios of the most experienced players who know how to diversify risks across different economic cycles.