Russian crypto market: is there a real capital flow into stocks?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market entered a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market operates under transparent rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to allocate their free capital?
A debate has unfolded within the expert community around several key questions. Are Russian retail investors really shifting funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks? Do these instruments compete for the same person, or do they have fundamentally different audiences? And finally, how do the risks and potential returns of these asset classes compare over a one-year horizon?
Is There Capital Movement?
Analysts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TEKHNOBIT, claims that a certain flow of funds from crypto to stocks does indeed exist. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, many investors took profits, tired of high volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges declined, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive opportunities—good dividends and transparent company reporting. Strict regulation of digital assets, in his view, only adds uncertainty, pushing some players toward legal and understandable instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies that this concerns only a small fraction of investors.
On the other hand, Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC Finam, does not observe a massive movement of funds. He believes these are fundamentally different investment strategies, and current dynamics do not confirm this. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator SHARD, sees the opposite picture: rather, there is a noticeable outflow of capital from stocks into bank savings and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also does not record a flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which is only 3.7 against the historical average of 6.2 over 10 years. In his opinion, current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below the norm, which completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private capital into stocks.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the risk-reward ratio, experts were much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Client Relations at BCS World of Investments, reminds that both stocks and crypto in Russia are classified as risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. At the same time, after deep corrections—both in crypto from the highs of July 2026 and in the stock market after the 2022 downturn—returns in both segments could be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is undoubtedly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees: "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses. Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Here, opinions again diverge, although the majority lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility and categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, tax reports, and bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" appear more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.
Fedor Ivanov, in turn, insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. He points to scale: the current total crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock market capitalization. These are two completely different financial worlds. Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase: a retail investor usually goes where the hype is. However, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, Pinchuk notes that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds a portfolio share in them himself.
Conclusions
The majority of surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of Russian retail investor money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan records such capital movement but describes its scale as small. Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of mass transitions, while Fedor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics—an outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued company market valuations.
On risk assessment issues, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while classic "blue chips" demonstrate predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently assessed as higher.
On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could indeed compete, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of overlap.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The current situation is a classic example of a "bear" market for both asset classes. The absence of a massive flow into stocks speaks not of the stock market's weakness, but of deep retail investor distrust of any risky instruments. As long as the Central Bank's key rate remains high, bank deposits will be the main competitor for both crypto and stocks. However, for a long-term investor, current multipliers for Russian stocks look extremely attractive, which could form the basis for powerful growth when monetary policy eases.