Crypto news

This week, the energy market experienced a serious shock: the Brent benchmark fell below the $80 per barrel mark, showing its deepest weekly drop in recent months. The decline was a substantial 9%. However, the leading cryptocurrency reacted to this event with striking indifference, dipping only 1%. This price gap forces us to reconsider the established view of a strong link between "black gold" and "digital gold."

Many traders are accustomed to seeing a sharp drop in oil prices as a "green light" for a subsequent rebound in the cryptocurrency market. However, the real intrigue lies in other factors: inflation expectations, miner behavior, and, most importantly, sentiment in the derivatives market.

Five-Year Data: Correlation is Nothing More Than a Myth

Let's turn to the numbers. Over the past five years, the mathematical correlation between Bitcoin and oil (WTI) has been only 0.036. Recall that this coefficient is measured from +1 (complete alignment of trajectories) to -1 (strictly opposite movement). The current figure of 0.036 clearly demonstrates a complete absence of a stable relationship between these assets.

Some analysts argue that the relationship only activates during periods of severe price shocks. To test this hypothesis, we divided the historical period into calm and volatile phases. The result was telling:

• Calm period: correlation coefficient +0.05
• High volatility: correlation coefficient -0.02
• Last 30 days: correlation coefficient -0.21

As you can see, even with detailed segmentation, both indicators remain extremely close to zero. This means that no serious investment relationship exists between the assets under any conditions. The latest thirty-day indicator dropped to -0.21, indicating a short-term divergence in rates, but the overall link remains very weak. In simple terms, no historical scenario allows oil quotes to be used as a reliable leading indicator for cryptocurrency.

Behavior of "Whales" and Miners: Confidence Against All Odds

Historical examples clearly confirm this thesis. When Brent was rapidly rising towards its local peak around $119 at the end of March, the leading cryptocurrency's price did not fall but showed enviable stability. During this same period, long-term holders (LTHs), who keep coins in wallets for over 155 days, were steadily increasing their positions. Their net purchase balance remained consistently positive until the beginning of June. This behavior marked an important reversal after major sell-offs in the second half of 2025.

Perhaps the only direct economic link between the industries lies in the mining sector. Electricity is the primary resource for cryptocurrency mining, so abnormally high energy costs can reduce business margins. Nevertheless, the network's total hashrate, reflecting overall computing power, has been confidently increasing recently. This growth occurs despite the decline in WTI prices and testifies to miners' fundamental belief in the industry's long-term prospects. Notably, computing power remained virtually unchanged even during the March rally in the hydrocarbon market.

The True Source of Pressure: The Derivatives Market

Since large investors and miners are showing high resilience, the source of the current pressure must be sought elsewhere. The main catalyst is the derivatives market. Bitcoin's Open Interest indicator has increased from $21.83 billion to $23.45 billion since June 11. Simultaneously, the funding rate has changed sharply, moving from a positive zone around +0.0023% into negative territory around -0.002%.

Recall that funding represents regular payments between long and short traders to balance the price. A negative value means sellers are forced to pay buyers to maintain their positions. This dynamic clearly reflects the predominance of "bearish" sentiment. The increase in the number of open contracts, along with the falling rate, indicates that speculators are actively opening shorts rather than rushing to buy the current dip.

This situation contains important market logic. If cheaper commodities were indeed a powerful driver for cryptocurrency growth, exchange players would be massively opening long positions. However, in practice, short bets currently dominate. This situation creates ideal conditions for a short squeeze. In such a scenario, any random upward impulse will force "bears" to panic-close their positions and buy back coins, leading to an avalanche-like rise in quotes.

My professional conclusion: As of today, Bitcoin's connection to the oil market is too weak to have a real impact on quotes. While Brent trades around $79 per barrel, Bitcoin holds the $62,800 level. This mark is approximately half of the historical October high of $126,200. It is obvious that the next strong price impulse for cryptocurrency will be dictated not by the cost of a barrel, but by the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and conditions in the derivatives market. Ignoring this fact is one of the main mental traps for an investor.