Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile ceasefire collapses
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — Iran's highest joint headquarters — has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision is a direct blow to recent de-escalation efforts and brings back onto the agenda a critical risk for global oil transit. Markets, which had already priced in relief from geopolitical tensions, now face a new wave of uncertainty.
Statement from the Military Command
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if aggression continues. The information was disseminated by all key Iranian state media. This move is the culmination of a conflict that began after US and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, and follows previously imposed restrictions on passage through the strait.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. This data comes from the US Energy Information Administration. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruptions in this region inevitably increase price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually non-existent.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts for the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also envisioned the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover after this arrangement was concluded, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian military effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Previously, this agreement quickly led to lower oil prices, but the current situation once again focuses market attention on the threat of a long-term supply shock.
However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been officially confirmed at the highest level: US Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite, emphasizing Washington's strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Analytical Commentary: The oil market is currently in an extremely vulnerable position. If the closure of the strait is confirmed, we could see a sharp spike in the price of "black gold," triggering a new wave of inflationary pressure worldwide. Cryptocurrency investors should closely monitor developments — an increase in geopolitical risks traditionally drives capital into safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin, although short-term volatility could be extreme.