Cryptocurrency in Russian banking apps: when and in what form?
The Russian retail investor is on the verge of a historic event: buying cryptocurrencies and digital financial assets (DFAs) could become as routine as topping up a mobile phone account. This involves the full integration of these instruments directly into banking app interfaces, bypassing traditional exchange points. However, as my analysis shows, the path to this scenario is not without its nuances, and the key question today is not whether this will happen, but in what form and when.
DFAs as a compromise and two types of investors
The most conservative, but in my view realistic, forecast comes from Yaroslav Kabakov of IK "Finam." He believes that DFAs—the most regulated and understandable instrument for the Central Bank—will be the first to enter banking apps. Direct purchases of "classic" cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, will face strict compliance requirements and regulatory barriers that have not yet been lifted.
The key driver here will be the adoption of the "On Digital Currencies" law. The Bank of Russia, as the initiator, expects its approval in the second reading by the end of July. Roman Nosov of "BCS World of Investments" rightly calls for waiting for the final version of the document, as it will clarify all the details.
The audience segmentation proposed by Alexander Nam, a representative of MTS Fintech, is interesting. He divides retail clients into two categories:
- Beginners: For them, simplicity, security, and trust in the brand are critical. The banking app will become an ideal "guide," eliminating the need to understand seed phrases and crypto wallets.
- Experienced traders: This group values anonymity, deep liquidity, and minimal fees. They will remain on professional exchanges and DeFi protocols, where banks are unlikely to compete on these parameters.
It is for the first, most massive group that banks will become the main entry channel into the world of digital assets, displacing "gray" exchangers.
Displacement of the shadow market and expert opinion
All surveyed experts agree that the arrival of banks will significantly reduce the share of illegal exchange points in the mass segment. However, the complete elimination of the "gray" market is unlikely. Professional players who value anonymity and access to global liquidity will continue to use alternative channels. Moreover, after the law comes into effect, the activities of unlicensed exchangers will become criminally and administratively punishable, forcing major players to legalize, but not completely eradicating the underground sector.
My analysis: The initiative of the Central Bank and banks is not just market liberalization, but a strategic step toward its legalization and monetization. Banks will gain a huge influx of new commission income from novice investors. However, in my view, the main limiting factor remains not so much regulation as the lack of deep blockchain expertise within the banks themselves. Those who can quickly build competencies and offer competitive products (including, possibly, direct access to cryptocurrencies) will take leading positions. A complete displacement of "gray" exchangers should not be expected, but their influence on the retail market will be minimized. The revolution will start with DFAs, while classic cryptocurrency for the masses will remain in question for some time.